Uncertainty should have the Mets steering clear of free agent Cy Young winner

The New York Mets cleverly chose to sign Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last offseason despite both coming off of several down years. Manaea’s was more performance based, but with a sweeper added to his arsenal late in the year as a member of the San Francisco Giants, the Mets were intrigued enough to give him an opportunity. Severino was apparently tipping pitches and if only they could get that right along with keeping him healthy, maybe he could turn into the ace he was early on in his career with the New York Yankees.

We should expect the Mets to consider at least another pitcher in a similar situation. A guy coming off of a bad year but with a history of performing well or something like that can still be a match. Things worked out pretty well for the Detroit Tigers and then Los Angeles Dodgers with Jack Flaherty.

What about someone coming off of a major injury? None is bigger in baseball than Tommy John surgery. It’s what claimed Shane Bieber for all but two starts this past year. The 2020 Cy Young winner and ace of the Cleveland Indians turned Guardians for several seasons, he’ll be available this winter with all of the uncertainty that comes with a TJS graduate.

Don’t expect Shane Bieber to sign for much of a bargain even as a Tommy John rehabber

The Mets could always ink Bieber to a deal similar to the one the Milwaukee Brewers signed Brandon Woodruff to last offseason. Woodruff made 11 starts in 2023 and missed all of 2024. Shoulder surgery in October set a low expectation for a return in 2024. He was signed for $2.5 million in 2024, a $5 million team option in 2025, and a $20 million mutual option with a $10 million buyout in 2026.

The situation would be much different with Bieber and the Mets. A year will have already passed by the time we get to Opening Day 2025. Plus, by signing with Milwaukee, Woodruff was able to stay put in a familiar spot. The Woodruff deal is more similar to what the Guardians could sign Bieber to rather than the Mets.

The Mets do have to be sensible about how much they spend and where. Even if the budget is much more than most ball clubs, adding Bieber comes with additional injury risk.

After winning the Cy Young with only a dozen starts in 2020, Bieber made 16 in 2021, 31 in 2022, and 21 in 2023. He has not been a picture of health in his career. In 2023, he wasn’t very good either, going 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA. His strikeout totals faded to a puzzling 7.5 per 9. This, for a guy at 10.2 per 9 in his career, was a shock.

Some version of Bieber will hit the mound in 2025 at some point. Tommy John surgery is miraculous and yet no guarantee of a player returning to who they once were. Noah Syndergaard never was the same after the surgery. The Mets don’t need to mess around crossing their fingers like they did with Manaea and Severino. Steer clear of Bieber.