Steamer projections for NY Mets pitcher are downright rude after the year he had

Steamer projections are why humanity doesn’t have to worry about the machines taking over quite yet. Artificial intelligence just doesn’t understand what makes us who we are. We can lump in Steamer projections as part of the uprising of computers and data looking to overthrow humankind one day. Reviewing what they have projected for some members of the New York Mets roster in 2025 should help you sleep safely at night knowing you won’t be replaced by a robot quite yet.

Aside from some obvious flaws like handing out too much playing time to some people or giving Kodai Senga 14 relief appearances to go with 26 starts, one of the statistical projections to catch my attention was what they have for Jose Butto. Although personally never a fan of his until last year, it’s downright rude what Steamer has projected for him.

A 3-3 record, 62 games, 62 innings, and a 3.84 ERA is what Butto is scheduled to do in 2025. Already seeing the innings match the game total makes it a bad call as we know Butto’s greatest weapon is the ability to go multiple innings at a time. That large of a leap in ERA, too, seems a bit baseless.

Jose Butto caught the short straw in the Steamer projections

Laughably, the ERA is worse than Danny Young (3.56), Sean Reid-Foley (3.75), and Huascar Brazoban (3.84). Young imploded late last season after a strong beginning to his Mets tenure. Reid-Foley had an incredibly albeit abbreviated year. We’ve seen him enough in the past to know he’s probably going to be on the wrong side of the projected ERA. Brazoban may very well end up with better numbers than the ones he had for the Mets last year after coming over from the Miami Marlins. There’s nothing wrong for their numbers to be projected this way. So why do Butto’s totals seem so far off?

I don’t doubt the logic put into the system to create these numbers. Something about Butto’s numbers seems off. Could it simply be that his 3.83 FIP from last year was more of the pitcher he’ll be?

Steamer has Butto giving up home runs at a rate of 1.4 per 9 which is double of what he did in 2024. Perhaps it’s his one bad start in 2022 that has skewed the numbers so much against him having another memorable year. It can help explain why a guy like Young who has been good in a small sample elsewhere is projected to have a better season than Butto even though he had an ERA about 2 runs higher last season.

As always, it’s a fun little project to look at preseason predictions from individuals or projections from algorithms later on to see how accurate or off they were. We already know Steamer is going to be way off in a couple of ways. Anthony Gose with only an inning pitched is projected to have a 3.41 ERA, the second-best of anyone to take the mound for the Mets in 2025. He’ll do it with only one inning pitched which is literally impossible to accomplish.

Steamer projections are a nice guide, but trust your head and heart more.