Predicting the NY Mets Opening Day starting rotation with Frankie Montas on the roster

Opening Day is still months away, but let's take a way too early look at what the Mets' rotation will look like to kick the season off.

Sep 12, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Frankie Montas (47) pitches the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
Sep 12, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Frankie Montas (47) pitches the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images | Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
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Walker Buehler

Montas isn’t the only rebound candidate I have currently penciled into the Mets’ Opening Day rotation. The Mets have recently been connected to former two-time All-Star and Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler. The last three years haven’t treated the right-hander well. He underwent Tommy John surgery partway through 2022, causing him to miss all of 2023. 

He returned this year just to put up a 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP, and 1.55 WHIP in just 75.1 innings. But he wasn’t at 100% the entire season, as he missed time due to a hip injury. At the very least, Walker ended the year on a high note. He finished out the Postseason, pitching ten scoreless innings between the NLCS and World Series, striking out 13, and recording the save during Game Five against the Yankees.

Plus, at one point, Buehler was one of the best pitchers in the game. From 2018 through 2021, Buehler pitched 564 innings, working to a 2.82 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and 0.99 WHIP. Buehler had a 27.7% strikeout rate to pair with an elite 6.1% walk rate. This amounted to a 4.53 K:BB ratio, the 13th highest between these four years. Buehler also had just a 0.93 HR/9 rate.

Buehler is in a situation similar to Severino's a year ago. Coming off a rough year, the previous three seasons had not treated Severino well either, missing time because of a multitude of injuries. But Severino proved to be a solid addition to the Mets’ rotation. Hopefully, if the Mets add Buehler, he can replicate something similar.

Schedule