Predicting the NY Mets Opening Day starting rotation with Frankie Montas on the roster

Opening Day is still months away, but let's take a way too early look at what the Mets' rotation will look like to kick the season off.

Sep 12, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Frankie Montas (47) pitches the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
Sep 12, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Frankie Montas (47) pitches the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images | Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
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David Peterson

David Peterson put up an ERA of just over 5.00 in 2023. He had some solid underlying numbers and broke out by taking a different approach this past season. The Southpaw is coming off his most promising season yet, cutting down his walk rate and inducing fewer swings-and-misses, but putting up some good results in the end.

Peterson pitched 121 innings, the most he’s tossed in the Major Leagues in a single year. His ERA clocked in at 2.90 and had a 3.67 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. Peterson had a 26.8% strikeout rate the previous two seasons but saw that drop to just 19.8%. On the plus side, his 9% walk rate was the first time he had a sub-10% BB%. Another positive is that his 0.60 HR/9 was another career-low.

Peterson induced a ground ball at a 50.1% clip. Although his 89.3 MPH exit velo was below average, his 7.3% barrel rate sat in the 59th percentile of all pitchers in baseball. Peterson used his sinker more than any other pitch in his arsenal, which held opponents to a zero-degree launch angle. Only 24 pitchers had a sinker that induced a zero or negative launch angle (min. 100 plate appearances).

Peterson’s season is promising, especially given he had such poor numbers just a year ago. The Southpaw is only entering his age-29 season as well. Peterson could end up being a reliable middle-rotation arm for the Mets next year. Hopefully, he can pitch more innings next year while still inducing good results.

Schedule