Predicting the NY Mets Opening Day starting rotation with Frankie Montas on the roster

David Peterson

David Peterson put up an ERA of just over 5.00 in 2023. He had some solid underlying numbers and broke out by taking a different approach this past season. The Southpaw is coming off his most promising season yet, cutting down his walk rate and inducing fewer swings-and-misses, but putting up some good results in the end.

Peterson pitched 121 innings, the most he’s tossed in the Major Leagues in a single year. His ERA clocked in at 2.90 and had a 3.67 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. Peterson had a 26.8% strikeout rate the previous two seasons but saw that drop to just 19.8%. On the plus side, his 9% walk rate was the first time he had a sub-10% BB%. Another positive is that his 0.60 HR/9 was another career-low.

Peterson induced a ground ball at a 50.1% clip. Although his 89.3 MPH exit velo was below average, his 7.3% barrel rate sat in the 59th percentile of all pitchers in baseball. Peterson used his sinker more than any other pitch in his arsenal, which held opponents to a zero-degree launch angle. Only 24 pitchers had a sinker that induced a zero or negative launch angle (min. 100 plate appearances).

Peterson’s season is promising, especially given he had such poor numbers just a year ago. The Southpaw is only entering his age-29 season as well. Peterson could end up being a reliable middle-rotation arm for the Mets next year. Hopefully, he can pitch more innings next year while still inducing good results.