Predicting the NY Mets Opening Day starting rotation with Frankie Montas on the roster

The New York Mets’ rotation was a reliable group in 2024. They put up a 3.91 ERA, 4.17 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP as a group. Although those weren’t world-beating numbers, each sat around league-average. But they made up for the lack of elite numbers with a ton of innings. Mets’ starters had the third most innings pitched in the National League and fifth most among all 30 Major League teams.

Opening Day is still months away, and the Mets will likely be very active in free agency and the trade market for the rest of the off-season. There’s still a lot left for David Stearns and Steve Cohen to do. But let’s take a way too early prediction as to what the Mets’ starting five could look like when April rolls around.

Kodai Senga

It would have been fun to see how the 2024 season would have played out if the Mets had a healthy Kodai Senga. Senga was limited to just a single regular season start after suffering a posterior capsule strain before Spring Training. He wouldn’t return to the mound until late July but would pitch just 5.1 innings in one outing before landing back on the IL with a calf strain. Senga would make his way back to the hill during the Postseason, but missing Senga was a huge blow to the Mets’ rotation.

When healthy, Senga is an ace-caliber pitcher. During his 2023 rookie season, the former Japanese superstar pitched to a 2.98 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP across 166.1 innings. Senga struck out 29.1% of opponents with a 10.93 K/9 ratio. Only Dwight Gooden, in his memorable 1984 season, has put up a higher K/9 in 20+ starts in Mets’ history. 

Senga was also good at limiting the long ball. His HR/9 rate clocked in at 0.92, while his 6.8% barrel rate was in the 71st percentile of all qualified pitchers in 2023. Senga did occasionally struggle with free passes. He had an 11.1% walk rate, which was the third-highest among all pitchers last year. Granted, the only pitchers worse than him at limiting walks were the ‘23 Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Charlie Morton.

Senga finished the year by placing second in Rookie of the Year voting behind Corbin Carroll and even received some National League Cy Young votes, finishing in 7th place. Not having Senga last year hurt the Mets’ pitching staff significantly. But getting him back into the rotation next year will give the starting five a huge boost.