NY Mets starting rotation: 1 player who'll overachieve, 1 who'll underachieve, 1 who'll be just right

Sean Manaea will be just right

The Mets starting pitcher with the porridge most appealing to Goldilocks is Sean Manaea. No starter on the roster has more big league experience than him. As good as he was last year, it wasn’t as incredible of an outlier as it may have felt. He has been that good or better in the past.

Manaea should benefit slightly from the regular extra day of rest. After logging a career-high 181.2 regular season innings plus pitching through the NLCS, he could benefit from a few more ice cubes on his shoulder and elbow.

Manaea overachieved expectations last year. Now, with the bar raised, a repeat isn’t so outrageous.

The 3.47 ERA can swing up without anyone panicking much. It was a career-low, after all. What we’re looking for most from Manaea is steadiness. His 1.08 WHIP ended a four-year streak of him finishing in the 1.20s. An impressive 6.6 hits per 9 allowed was the main reason for it. A veteran doesn’t hold hitters to a .202 batting average for no reason at all.

As long as your expectations for Manaea are tempered you should feel satisfied with the end results. He won’t challenge for a Cy Young. He might not have a strong case to be an All-Star. Manaea might not even be the best pitcher on the staff. Quality starts and gutsy, bulldog level outings are what we’re looking for.