NY Mets starting rotation: 1 player who'll overachieve, 1 who'll underachieve, 1 who'll be just right

David Peterson will underachieve

There are pitchers like Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill who probably won’t have the most excellent of seasons for the 2025 Mets. Their track records suggest a fifth or sixth spot in anyone’s rotation is the most comfortable fit. David Peterson is much different. He’s coming off of a career-year highlighted by a 10-3 record, 2.90 ERA, and 121 innings all coming as a starter.

A statistical success in surface-level ways, Mets fans had enough panic attacks with him on the mound to realize there’s a good chance he underachieves next year.

A still high 1.28 WHIP, worsening strikeout numbers at 7.5 per 9, a career-best 9% walk-rate that was still higher than the league’s 8.5% during his career, Peterson was a man who flirted with danger plenty this past year. His groundball rate ticked down lightly, too. The average exit velocity against him was exactly where he has been throughout his career at 88.8mph.

So what made him so good? Some timely double plays as well as a huge dip in the number of home runs he allowed aided Peterson last season. His 1.6% of home runs allowed is close to half of the average pitcher. The lack of souvenirs hit into the bleachers is what made the biggest difference.

Peterson can still have a very good year in 2025 without the same level of success. He’ll be tough to predict. This is a guy who has yet to make it through a full 162-game schedule on the major league roster due to a combination of injuries, demotions, and a pandemic.