NY Mets starting rotation: 1 player who'll overachieve, 1 who'll underachieve, 1 who'll be just right

It would take a M. Night Shyamalan type of twist for any major changes to occur with the New York Mets starting rotation. Someone would have to be subtracted in order to make room for another. Only an uppercut to the rest of the league by acquiring Roki Sasaki could possibly alter things significantly enough.

Many of the same questions we had with last year’s planned rotation continue into 2025. Gambles, risks, and shots in the dark make up what will turn out to be some rotation of six players.

Undoubtedly, we’ll have someone overachieve, another underachieve, and at least one guy who meets our expectations to the fullest. Who fits each criteria?

Clay Holmes will overachieve

How will the experiment of using Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher turn out? It’s the boldest project coming into the 2025 season. It’s the kind of move that’ll help give the team the nickname the New York MENSA or New York Mess.

Almost as bold as the Mets’ decision to turn Holmes into a starter is an early declaration that he will indeed overachieve in 2025. The Mets didn’t sign this guy without some framework in place already as to how they’d accomplish this. It’s far more complicated than throwing money at Corbin Burnes then telling him to do his thing.

Belief in the Mets organization is one thing. Another, less blind reason to trust in Holmes’ effectiveness, is how carefully they’ll use him. Holmes isn’t going to get pushed deep into games early on. They’re going to protect him. He’s the type of pitching who will end up exiting when an innings limit or pitch count is reached, not when he looks better.

As a result, Holmes will be able to avoid those same kinds of outings a guy like Luis Severino experienced in 2024 where he was left on the mound an inning too long. Some may not think of this as Holmes necessarily overachieving. Limited starting pitchers have their downside. Because the Mets have multiple alternatives in-house and enough of a history from Holmes to realize he can be effective in relief, there won’t be enough reason to continue using him as a starter if they don’t need to.

The huge con: what does it mean for the reliever behind him?