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Ranking the Mets starting pitcher options for the now-necessary Game 5
The New York Mets are battling for a spot in the World Series in this National League Championship series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The team has had an incredible run throughout the regular season and playoffs against all odds.
However, in this fight, the Mets must be intelligent in every move and decision made because they can be decisive in this series against a team that finished with the best record in the MLB. In this sense, the Mets need to consider what is the right decision in selecting the starter for a fifth game, which is already a certainty in this series after the debacle of Kodai Senga's first game. In this article, we rank the best four options for that match.
4. Tylor Megill
Tylor Megill has been a consistent pitcher at times over the last few seasons. Megill has shown flashes of considerable stuff and potential but sometimes does not have dominant performances which makes him an unreliable pitcher, especially in a scenario like this.
However, there are arguments that serve as a basis to support Megill being a possible starter for game five of the National League Championship Series. The young right-hander is a fresh arm with little appearance and use in these playoffs, which is a positive factor.
An important aspect is that Megill has improved his stuff considerably this 2024 season achieving his best ratio in strikeouts per nine innings with 10.50. He achieved this with an improvement in his control compared to 2023, reducing his BB/9 by 44 points.
It is important to note that in terms of wOBA, an indicator that highlights the quality of the hitters' at-bats, Megill posted an average allowed of .289 since the beginning of the second half of the season, which is quite good since it highlights his ability to stuff and control, that is, dominance over the batters. In the scenario that the bullpen has to work a lot during the rest of the series Megill can be a reliable arm for that fifth game.
3. Kodai Senga
Before everyone starts to overreact about this, it should be noted that Kodai Senga is a little raw in these playoffs due to his few appearances on the mound this season. However, when Senga has been in form his stuff level is by far the best of the Mets' entire starting pitching staff.
A positive aspect, if there is one, of Senga's last start is due to the fact that the pitcher does not have any type of discomfort or injury in his throwing arm or any other part of his body. His poor performance in the first game of this series is exclusively due to a grip issue in his pitches that did not allow him to deceive the batters for strikes and increased his level of lack of control.
In his appearances during the regular season, Senga managed to post a Stuff+ of 110, that is, ten percent better than the league average and with a location also above the MLB average. Additionally, he achieved a higher percentage of hitters swinging more outside the strike zone, and a decrease in his hard-hit contact allowed.
Senga in his MLB career against Dodgers hitters has managed to hold Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Tommy Edman to a batting average below .100 collectively. As Senga finds his rhythm in practice he could be an X-factor in this series as the starter for Game 5 of the NLCS.
2. Bullpen Game
Another creative way to address the pitcher issue for Game 5 of this championship series is through a bullpen game. Unlike other MLB teams, including the Dodgers themselves, the Mets have not been using this tool because the team's pitching staff has been highly efficient during the final stretch of the season.
Indeed, from September 1 to date, the Mets' starting rotation has the fifth-best ERA in all of MLB, something that seemed unprecedented at the beginning of the season when the weaknesses of this team were argued for the 2024 season. Likewise, the Mets bullpen has been a lethal weapon this season despite the control and walk issues they struggled with throughout the season.
Throughout the season, the Mets bullpen had the best strikeout ratio per nine innings in the entire MLB with 10.61 and one of the best Stuff+ in baseball, ranking number 6. Likewise, against the Dodgers during the regular series, The bullpen of the New York team managed to keep that great offense at a SLG of .366 and managed to retire them by striking out with a percentage of 27.7% better than what the Dodgers bullpen achieved against the Mets this season.
The Mets could be inclined to start a bullpen game with Reed Garrett who managed to keep Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Gavin Lux, and Andy Pages hitless against him during the regular season. From this point, they could use a combination of David Peterson, Tylor Megill, José Buttó, and Phil Maton depending on the matchup.
1. David Peterson
The ideal candidate for the fans and the composition of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup should be David Peterson. Peterson has been a reliable pitcher since the Mets' late-season rotation and in his fluid role in the bullpen in these playoffs.
Peterson has kept the opposition practically neutralized but his efficiency has been even better against lefties, something this Dodgers lineup has in excess. During 2024, Peterson managed to hold left-handed hitters to a .218 batting average with an SLG of just .303.
His level of dominance towards lefties is surprising with an elite K/BB of 6.33 and a hard-hit contact of just 23.5%. These numbers are shown significantly better by pitching at Citi Field where lefties hit for a line of .200/.254/.309 with a K/9 of 12.89, a BB/9 of just 1.89, and a hard-hit contact that decreases to only 20.6%.
The above shows why Peterson should be the number one option as a starter for game five of the championship series against the Dodgers. Unfortunately, the fact that the Mets bullpen does not have a truly trustworthy left-handed arm makes the presence of Peterson necessary in this role that he has been playing during these playoffs, therefore, the guarantee that Peterson can be the starter of game five will depend on the intensive use that can be given to it during these next games.
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