MJ Melendez is off to a really weird NY Mets start ready to crater or rise

A roulette wheel can make a person feel smart for about three spins before it reminds everyone who runs the casino. The New York Mets might be living in that space right now with MJ Melendez, who has been one of the few bats showing signs of life while somehow living on both red and black at once. The hits keep showing up. The clutch moments keep cashing in. The strikeouts, though, keep sitting there like the dealer giving a little grin.

That is what makes this such a fascinating ride. Melendez has given the Mets a reason to keep feeding the hot hand, even if the wheel does not exactly scream safe investment. There is a little of the old Kenny Rogers line in this one. You have to know when to hold ’em, and right now the Mets are staying in the hand. Melendez has earned the chance to keep stacking chips while the ball is bouncing his way. The trick is figuring out whether this run will end up on green. Either way, the spin is still alive.

Mets have MJ Melendez producing, but the strikeout risk is impossible to ignore

Since arriving from Triple-A to replace injured Jared Young, MJ Melendez has somehow looked like both the warning sign and the bright light in the same room. During an 11-game slide where the New York Mets offense has looked like it is down to its last chip at the table, he has been one of the few still pushing something into the middle. He has two of the team’s eight RBI since his call-up and has scored two of those runs himself.

The strange part is how it has happened. 5 hits in 14 at-bats, 2 walks, and 8 strikeouts is a stat line pulling in two directions at once. Some of it looks encouraging. Some of it looks like trouble waiting for its turn. Yet when a lineup is struggling to score, production does not have to arrive perfectly packaged. Sometimes it shows up a little messy, but it still gives the team what it needs.

That is why the 50% strikeout rate feels more like a storm cloud than a verdict right now. Yes, it is extreme. Yes, it can drag this whole thing into a ditch if it holds. But history also says this number should come down. His strikeout rate over 435 games with the Kansas City Royals sat at 26%, which is high, but nowhere near living on the edge of every other plate appearance ending in a walk back to the dugout.

For the Amazins, this is where the hot hand argument comes in. You do not pull a player from the lineup when he is one of the few producing. You keep running him out there and see how long the heater lasts. In a lineup begging for a pulse, Melendez has earned that much. The strikeouts will probably show up because that is part of the package, but there is room for the swing-and-miss to ease without the run production leaving with it.

If the strikeouts settle even a little and the production stays, the Mets may have stumbled into something worth riding out. If not, the turn can come fast. For now, the smart move is simple. Let Melendez stay at the table and keep that white ball spinning.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow