NY Mets spring training preview: 1 player whose preseason stats should matter

Spring training statistics are often unimportant, in particular for established players. It’s a practice round and a time to try out some new things. Get in shape, feel good about yourself, and sign a couple of autographs. As much as we’d love to value everything that happens for each New York Mets player during spring training, we know better than to put much stock in the actual numbers.

This won’t be the case for everyone. Digits will matter for some of the players on the fringe of making the team. And they should matter for Clay Holmes whose unexpected career turn from relief pitcher to starter should be put on hold if the stat sheet looks absolutely rotten in spring training games.

The Mets should make Clay Holmes’ spring training statistics matter

One of the more unique twists of the offseason was to add Holmes on a multi-year deal to become a starting pitcher. His last start came in 2018 as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. A transition to the bullpen helped him to eventually establish himself as one of the better relievers in baseball but not until he joined the New York Yankees in mid-2021.

If you think you know what Holmes will do for the Mets as a starting pitcher this year, you’re guessing as good as anyone else. Anything is possible. A success like Reynaldo Lopez, a failure like A.J. Puk, or somewhere in between like Jordan Hicks, it’s all on the table.

When it comes to those final roster decisions, statistics only partly matter. Holmes will be here regardless but his exact role shouldn’t be locked in as a starter. The Mets made sure to allow themselves some flexibility. As unsatisfactory as it would be to have Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, or Tylor Megill in the rotation, all three have at least started games in the majors far more recently than Holmes. Getting rocked around in the preseason should be enough for the Mets to immediately reconsider what their Opening Day roster will look like with Holmes shifted to the bullpen where we’d be more confident in his ability to deliver.

Holmes will most likely get only 4 or 5 starts to prove to everyone he does belong in the rotation. As is tradition with spring training starts, the appearances will get progressively longer. Handling Holmes may be different. We’ll have to trust the Mets to know how quickly to push him and when to pull the reins back on his innings.

A lot will need to happen for the Mets to bail on the idea of Holmes in the rotation. Along with being horrific, someone else may need to dazzle. Canning or Megill seem like the most logical replacement options (Blackburn will be a part of the six-man rotation more likely than not). At the very least, Holmes’ numbers should matter in terms of where he slots into the rotation. A bad spring might not eliminate him from the rotation entirely. However, it might have him sliding down the depth chart and as low as the sixth spot, making it a little easier to skip his turn if needed.