How the NY Mets signing of Luke Weaver compares to who the Phillies stole first

The New York Mets began their bullpen overhaul last offseason with the most important piece, signing closer Devin Williams to a three-year deal to replace Edwin Díaz, who took a record deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, with Gregory Soto, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers all jettisoned as well, the team needed to add a set-up man to lock down the eighth inning in front of "The Airbender."

Enter: Brad Keller. The sweeper savant broke out in a big way in 2025 with the Chicago Cubs, pitching to a 2.07 ERA and 2.93 FIP in nearly 70 innings before emerging as their most reliable reliever in the postseason. The Mets were frequently mentioned as an interested camp for Keller... until the right-hander signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Much like the team's quick pivot to Bo Bichette once they lost out in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, the Mets wasted no time in seeking out a different set-up man: Luke Weaver. In fact, they wound up signing the former Yankees closer to the exact same deal as Keller, right down to the backloaded structure of the salary.

Now, with the first quarter of those deals in the rearview mirror, what can we say about the Weaver over Keller decision? Spoiler alert: The Mets made the right call.

The Mets won the arms race against the Phillies this offseason

By now, every Mets fan knows just how dominant Weaver has been in 2026. He didn't give up a single run in May or June, riding a streak of 22 consecutive scoreless outings into July. His overall season stats -- 2.00 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 28.3% strikeout rate, 1.1 fWAR -- are indicative of a genuine lockdown reliever, which has been reassuring given the up-and-down nature of Williams' tenure in Queens.

Had this season gone to plan for the Mets, Weaver would be Carlos Mendoza's go-to high-leverage option prior to the ninth inning, and perhaps even an All-Star candidate. Alas, Mendoza is long gone and the Amazins haven't exactly been amazing, hence why the right-hander finds himself on the trade block.

On the other hand, the Phillies have scratched and clawed their way out of an early season hole, nearly closing a once-insurmountable gap with the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Yet, they've had to do so without getting much from Keller, as the marquee free-agent ticket has supplied them with a 4.15 ERA and 4.17 FIP this season. He also landed on the injured list in early June with a forearm injury, further calling into question how Philadelphia plans to bridge the gap from their rotation to star closer Jhoan Duran.

While Philly will need to wait and hope that Keller returns to action better than he was before the injury, the Mets can dangle Weaver in front of contenders and demand a king's ransom for their best reliever. It's a small silver lining amidst a sea of poor choices, but in this particular instance, you have to hand it to David Stearns for making the right call last offseason with Weaver.

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