What it will cost the NY Mets to sign a qualifying offer free agent this winter

Players who reject a qualifying offer often wear a scarlet letter into free agency. The New York Mets have stayed clear of many of those players with Juan Soto being an exception. It cost the Mets two draft picks plus international bonus slot money. Was it worth it? You don’t play this game to win with draft picks.

Penalties will again apply in 2026 for teams who sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer. They haven’t been handed out yet, but the Mets will need to heavily weigh which available players are worth the penalty.

What will the Mets lose if they sign one of these players?

The second and fifth highest draft picks are what are lost if the Mets sign a player who rejects the QO. In addition, $1 million in international bonus slot money is taken away.

The Mets can gain draft picks by seeing one of their players reject a QO and sign elsewhere. However, with Edwin Diaz being the only logical player to receive one and him being a strong match to return, we shouldn’t count on it.

The draft lottery can determine how willing the Mets are to sign one of these players

Something many Mets fans may not have realized is MLB now has a draft lottery system in place. All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery with a chance to earn a top six pick. Because the signing of one QO free agent only eliminates the second-highest draft pick, the Mets aren’t in danger of losing their first-round selection. Their odds of getting the first overall pick are incredibly slim at 0.67%.

Things get a little crazy with the Mets because of their team salary this past year. They’re penalized 10 spots in the draft with the exception of having a top 6 pick. They can pick anywhere between 1-6 with a more likely shot between 17th or lower. If they do have a top 6 pick, it’s their second selection that moves down. Hypothetically, if the Mets were to get a top 6 pick in the lottery, they’d gain even more incentive to sign a QO free agent as it would be their round selection that moves down 10 spots.

What if the Mets sign two players who reject the QO?

Signing two players who rejected the QO, while unlikely for a couple of reasons, would cost the Mets their second, third, fifth, and sixth highest draft picks. All of these exact picks are unknown at the moment. Major League Baseball should probably hire someone to keep track of it all because we’re sure to see a couple players reject the QO and sign with a new ball club.