Mets are favorites to sign Juan Soto and should be leading the pack for this other free agent

A recent report by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale states that the New York Mets are the ‘clear-cut favorite’ team to land Juan Soto. That shouldn’t be a huge surprise to Mets fans. Steve Cohen is willing to outbid anyone and everyone for Soto’s services, and after his 2023 season, Cohen has a very good reason to hand Juan Soto a blank check.

Soto turned in a .288/.419/.549 triple-slash with a 188 wRC+. The slugger showed off his typical plate discipline with an 18.1% walk rate and a chase rate of just 18.3%. He also struck out just 16.7% of the time. Soto mashed a career-best 41 dingers last year with a .281 isolated slugging percentage. Defensively, Soto had zero defensive runs saved and -4 OAA, but that’s more than playable when he hits like he does.

But the Mets shouldn’t be favorites to land just Juan Soto. They should also be the favorites to land another top free agent, that being starting pitcher Corbin Burnes. Burnes is coming off yet another quality season after he was traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Baltimore Orioles. Burnes pitched 194.1 innings, working to a 2.92 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP.

Corbin Burnes makes a great fit for the Mets

Burnes’ 23.1% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, but his 6.1% walk rate was the lowest since his ‘21 Cy Young season. Burnes has always been good at limiting hard contact, and 2024 was no different. The right-hander was in the 81st percentile of average exit velocity at 87.5 MPH and the 70th percentile of barrel percentage at 6.7%. Burnes also put up a sub-5% barrel rate between 2021 and 2023 at 4.8% with the Brewers.

Burnes makes a ton of sense for the Mets. The Mets have a big need for starting pitching. Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino combined for 94 starts, each making at least 31 outings. All three also had an ERA below 4.00, with the lowest ERA+ being 101. That is a lot of starts and a lot of production the Mets are losing on the free agent market.

Burnes is a rotation anchor. Since 2022, Burnes has made at least 32 starts and has averaged 197 innings a season. Overall, he has 590 innings pitched since the start of the ‘22 campaign. Only two other pitchers have more IP over the last three seasons: Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants and Aaron Nola of the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies. Burnes has a better ERA than either hurler.

Lastly, there’s the connection between Burnes and Mets’ president of baseball operations, David Stearns. Sterans served as the Milwaukee Brewers’ general manager from 2015 through 2023. During that time, Stearns drafted Burnes during the fourth round of the 2016 draft and watched him develop into a multi-time All-Star and one-time Cy Young winner for Milwaukee.

The Mets should be frontrunners for both Soto and Burnes. That might be a lot to ask, but very few pitchers in the league provide both the volume and quality that Burnes does. The Met could use that sort of rotation anchor in 2025 and beyond, as that stability could do a lot of good for the long-term of both their starters and relievers.