Sometimes you don’t have to be the smartest person in the room. The best approach is the simplest. For the New York Mets, this means getting the best pitcher you can in free agency within reason of their salary demands. One of the latest Mets rumors suggests they’re still trying to outsmart the competition.
According to Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated, the Mets are showing interest in free agent Griffin Canning.
Canning has already had a unique offseason. Traded by the Los Angeles Angels to the Atlanta Braves and then non-tendered weeks later, this once highly-thought of starter has become one of the latest free agent candidates to be mentioned in offseason Mets rumors.
How should we feel about Mets rumors connecting them to Griffin Canning?
By name value, Canning seems to match well with what the David Stearns-led Mets like to do. He’s a little different, though. He isn’t a bounceback candidate. In parts of 5 MLB seasons with the Los Angeles Angels, Canning has never had an ERA below 3.99. His career 4.78 ERA matches exactly to his 4.78 FIP which suggests he is neither lucky nor unlucky. This gives us a pretty good assessment of what he truly is.
Canning gives up too many home runs, doesn’t strike out enough batters, and is pretty average when it comes to his walk rate. The last two seasons have seen him get hit pretty hard with average exit velocities over 90mph. His groundball rate did improve those last two years. However, with a league-high 99 earned runs last year, it’s kind of a “so what?” response we should have.
Canning turns 29 in May which should have some team assuming they can mold him into the starter he was supposed to be while with the Angels. He is at the point of his career where he can reject an assignment to the minor leagues which makes him less of a match for the Mets.
Signing Canning would be different than Frankie Montas who has been very good in the majors for a number of seasons. He differs from Clay Holmes, too. The doubts about Holmes come from changing his role as a reliever to a starter. The Mets would need to tap into something completely different with Canning. He has yet to have a truly good season.
The Braves non-tendering him so abruptly is meaningless because the trade itself was to rid themselves of Jorge Soler’s salary. The demand surely wasn’t there for another team to acquire Canning shortly after even in a player for cash swap.
A minor league deal with Canning wouldn’t be outrageous. Anything more and it’ll begin to feel like the Mets are pushing their luck.