NY Mets rumors: Freddy Peralta should take the projected contract extension and run

The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Tim Britton crunched some numbers, asked a wizard, and finally threw a dart at a board. They came away with a good guess as to how much it will take for the New York Mets to extend Freddy Peralta. The number came in at 4-years and $112 million.

It’s a good midway point with an AAV of $28 million and four years which doesn’t reach that terrifying fifth year David Stearns likes to avoid but gives Peralta a deal through his age 34 season.

As with any big contract offer, there’s a debate from both sides. Is it too much? Does the player have a better opportunity to get paid more somewhere else? If this is the kind of deal the Mets would realistically offer Peralta, he should take it and run.

Why this is a better contract for Freddy Peralta than the market may dictate

Peralta may be one of those later risers. He’s coming off of a career year with the Milwaukee Brewers, hoping to do even better in 2026 with the Mets. Baseball-Reference’s similarity score has him measuring up against Zac Gallen through age 29. At age 27 and 28, his career most closely resembled Jack Flaherty.

Gallen ended up returning to the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason after everyone passed over him in free agency, largely because of the qualifying offer penalties attached to him. Peralta will undoubtedly have a QO thrown his way after the 2026 season regardless of whether or not he is as good as last year or significantly worse. Gallen’s $22+ million deal with large deferrals will require him to rebound this year after a down season in 2026.

Flaherty is another interesting free agency case. He ended up getting paid $25 million from the Detroit Tigers last year and a vesting option will pay him $20 million this coming year. With him, there are some greater injury concerns than there are with Peralta. Regardless, seeing him fail to get a long-term deal should have Peralta grabbing the thickest Sharpie he can to sign with the Mets.

A four-year deal that would pay Peralta through 2030 sets him up well for an additional one, two, or even three-year deal later in his career. If he feels like $28 million a year is a little too low, he can easily recoup it in the future even if inflation will technically make it not as valuable. There’s no reason to believe Peralta, in his mid-30s, can’t keep getting paid for years after his extension with the Mets ends.

Ranger Suarez’s $26 million AAV over the next five years is the one deal Peralta will need to ignore in order to agree to this deal. While the theoretical Peralta contract tops it in AAV, it falls short by $18 million in total value.

Peralta can bet on himself, avoid a contract extension, and end up chasing dollars he turned down for years. He can also get paid, dig his heels in, and not have to worry about anything other than winning.

If a fifth year is a must, the Mets should go there and top Suarez’s contract by a million bucks. Five years and $131 million seems more than fair and strokes the ego. The risk isn't necessarily what happens in the fifth year as much as it is for any of the early seasons when Peralta may suffer an injury or simply have an off-year.