NY Mets rumors: Clay Holmes trade comparison makes this White Sox prospect look realistic

Clay Holmes began the rehab process on Saturday and the buzz around him is whether or not he’ll finish the year in another team’s uniform or if he’ll be one of several New York Mets rumors to stay put. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo explored how his value is viewed, comparing it closely to the Shane Bieber trade from last year.

Bieber was swapped for then fifth ranked Cleveland Guardians prospect Khal Stephen. A borderline top 100 prospect, it gives us an idea of what the asking price for a player like Holmes could be if this assessment is indeed true.

Bob Nightnegale helped link Holmes to the Chicago White Sox. A Cinderalla Story of 2026, adding him would give their team a bit more credibility than simply being the default winner in the AL Central. Looking through who the White Sox have to offer, one player fits closely enough to match last year’s Bieber trade.

Who could the Mets get from the White Sox for Clay Holmes if Shane Bieber is the comparison?

Not every fifth ranked prospect in each team’s system is the same. Some are far better. Some are much worse. The White Sox have four top 100 prospects with a pitcher named Tanner McDougal at number five. Borderline or further behind, it does make sense.

A fifth round pick from 2021, McDougal is in Triple-A with a 2.48 ERA in 29 innings. Big strikeout numbers in his professional career (11 per 9) and a problem with walks (4.9 per 9), he’s a lot of what the Mets like to take chances on. Trading Holmes is already worth some debate because he’s very much a fit to sign an extension with the Mets. Furthermore, the team can always protect themselves with draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere by making him the qualifying offer. His market could shrink and force him back to Queens in this situation.

Before we get into the weeds of that offseason conversation, the first order of business is to figure out if Holmes for McDougal is good enough. Bieber had 4 rehab starts before the trade and no appearances in the big leagues for Cleveland prior to joining the Toronto Blue Jays. They should view the deal positively. It gave them an experienced rental that helped punch their ticket to an AL Pennant. How do the Guardians feel?

Elbow surgery in early July put a halt to any reward they’ll get out of this trade other than some financial benefits from dealing Bieber away late last season. He was pitching well in Double-A, posting a 3.44 ERA. With every trade, there’s a risk whether you want to prefer quality or quantity. Quality means all of your eggs are in one basket. Quantity usually means they’re already cracking.

If McDougal is all the Mets could possibly get from the White Sox, it might not be worth it. He was a fifth round pick and they’d essentially get something slightly better in a case where Holmes signs elsewhere. They would have received a pick afte the fourth round for losing Edwin Diaz this past offseason if not for their addition of Bo Bichette which made the bonus pick moot.

The greedy thing to do is to trade Holmes and re-sign him in the offseason. The bold move is to make him the qualifying offer and eliminate some contenders while maybe lowering the price slightly. We also have the reasonable move of extending him ASAP.

A questionable trade market in the next two weeks could have Holmes swapping teams for more than what the Blue Jays gave up for Bieber. He was coming off of a far more major injury, missing practically all of the 2024 season. The comparison is one anonymous source’s thoughts. Something about this trade returns feels a little too light.

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