Clay Holmes is one of the trickier New York Mets trade candidates. He’d definitely deserve a qualifying offer this offseason. Still injured with no rehab yet to begin, the Mets wouldn’t get nearly as much for him had he been stepping on the mound once or twice a week performing at a high level like he did to begin the season.
Even if his injury isn’t expected to be a long-term issue, the time it takes to get back into the swing of things could scare off a few teams. Based on the recent Mets rumors of his openness to an extension, they could serve themselves better by making him the offer now and skipping the process of trading him before trying to re-sign him in the offseason. That never works out quite like fans imagine.
If the Mets have any interest in a longer relationship, contract predictions of around 3 years and $60-75 million, they need to aggressively and creatively shop one of their other players at this year’s trade deadline.
Dear MLB trade deadline buyers, could the Mets interest you in Sean Manaea?
Sean Manaea has been pretty good as a starter. His 1-3 record and 3.94 ERA through 6 outings doesn’t explain him well enough. Only a pair of quality starts among the six, he was 3 or fewer outs away from adding two more.
The Mets were the ones holding this version back from showing up. Locked into a relief role until June 13th, Manaea has rewarded them for putting him in what appears to be his more proper place. A 7-inning performance his last time out came as a pleasant surprise even if the opponent happened to be one of the league’s worst, the Kansas City Royals.
Nevertheless, Manaea’s ability to eat innings up should fetch some suitors. The issue is the Mets have half-a-dozen examples of what he can do as a starter. What’s more, the remainder of his $25 million contract this year and the same for next season has been an overpay thus far. Trading him would require New York to eat cash. The uncertainty of the results of the CBA shouldn’t have the Mets too hesitant as anything coming from those results probably won’t go into effect until the 2028 season.
A Holmes extension now creates a rotation next year featuring him, Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and Manaea. Kodai Senga can’t possibly get another start for the Mets. His spot would go to one of the kids, like Jonah Tong or Zach Thornton, plus a veteran brought in via trade or free agency. A single change to the rotation could work well for a Mets club that everyone believes made too many over the winter. It’s not the worst scenario to keep Manaea around for another season if this is the version they’ll get, a 3.94 ERA average. The issue is how limiting it is.
The free agent pool isn’t highly-regarded this winter, but there are pitchers not named Tarik Skubal that would be good finds. Trevor Rogers is someone the Mets have had interest in previously. While his overall season numbers aren’t great for the Baltimore Orioles, he has been much better lately. Opt-outs for players like Michael King and Nick Pivetta are worth watching. The Tampa Bay Rays putting Drew Rasmussen, a David Stearns draft pick from back in the day, on the block isn’t inconceivable.
Manaea would need to be the perceived Mets’ fifth best starter next season. Since signing his new deal with the club after 2024, he has gone 4-8 with a 5.04 ERA. In both seasons, he has had times throwing in relief due to poor performance.
Manaea's value has raised, but a trade probably won't happen in the coming weeks short of the Mets taking on a large chunk of his salary. In November before the impending lockout begins, maybe the Mets find a more realistic suitor. They don't need to rush to do anything, but a few feelers in the upcoming trade deadline discussions can give them a headstart.
