A hitch in the Mets rotation plans against the Dodgers by starting with Kodai Senga

The New York Mets rotation plans are coming into form for their NLCS matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kodai Senga gets the ball in Game 1. Sean Manaea takes the hill in Game 2.

Because the Mets were able to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies early, the extra rest allowed them to mull over some plans for their rotation. Only Jose Quintana for Game 4 was a virtual lock. How they chose to use Senga, Manaea, and Luis Severino was the only place that was up for debate.

Senga in one of the first two games in Los Angeles was a must due to the assumption he’d be limited in some way and relieved by David Peterson. Choosing him for Game 1 might come at a cost further down the line.

The Mets asking Kodai Senga to pitch in Game 1 raises some questions for Game 5

When the “if necessary” Game 5 rolls around in New York, what will the Mets do? Senga will be on the regular 4 days of rest between starts. But with his preference and familiarity with the extra fifth day, the Mets would be pushing him a little earlier. What then? Do they remind him of his contract and how much he has pitched this year and ask him to step up?

Of course, there are ways around this. Peterson will be paired behind Senga in any start he might make in the postseason. Peterson should be fresh to go in Game 1 to piggyback off of Senga. If the plan remains to stick with Senga in Game 5 with Peterson behind him, the Mets won’t be able to turn to him for help in Game 4.

The easy resolution to this would have been to use Senga in Game 2 and ask Manaea to throw in the opener. This would have Senga pitching again in Game 6 with the normal amount of rest he is used to having between outings. It would also give the Mets an opportunity to utilize Peterson in any of the games at Citi Field (3 through 5) thanks to the travel day after Game 2 and another before Game 6.

The Mets ran into a bit of trouble in the NLDS with availability of pitchers. This wasn’t the result of how they used Senga and Peterson. It was more about the lack of off-days plus the doubleheader on September 30. This time, they might have set themselves up poorly for something similar to happen. 

Peterson will be the presumed next man out of the bullpen behind Senga in Game 1 which makes him unavailable in Game 2. They’d be hamstrung into not using him at all in Game 4 even if the situation called for it. With a lack of lefties in the bullpen (maybe no others if Danny Young fails to make the NLCS roster), having Peterson available as much as possible is beneficial.

The one pro for this situation

The Mets will have to work around Senga and Peterson with the current alignment. The pro does arrive in the last two potential games when Senga won’t pitch, which means Peterson should be available for any sudden death situations in Game 6 and 7. But saving your best weapon for those games with an asterisk next to them isn’t so wise when the Mets will be stuck without him entirely in Game 4 and used as a long reliever in Game 5 behind Senga.

So far, the opener of both playoff series for the Mets have gone similarly with a lack of offense early and a blitzkrieg of runs later on. Even if the same happens again, it does nothing to answer the early Game 5 question. If not Senga on traditional MLB starting pitcher rest (a day early for him) then who?