NY Mets rotation: 2 things to love, 2 things to hate three times through

By the third date, you usually know what you’re in for. Is this a relationship headed for candlelit dinners and shared desserts, or are you looking at a future full of drive-thru pickups and awkward silences? That’s about where we are with the New York Mets’ starting rotation, three turns through, and the early impressions are starting to harden into something real. There’s been a little charm, a few red flags, and enough mystery to keep things interesting. Let’s see where this relationship might be heading.

Good: The dates get messy, but Mets pitchers don’t let the jam ruin the meal.

The Mets’ starters may be getting into trouble, but they’re proving adept at getting out of it. While four of the five have WHIPs above 1.20 and expected ERAs suggesting more runs should be scoring, their actual ERA as a unit remains solid. Tylor Megill’s stellar 0.63 ERA stands out despite a 1.26 WHIP and a 3.06 xERA. David Peterson (2.70 ERA and 4.42 xERA) and Griffin Canning (4.20 ERA, 5.20 xERA) are managing what feels like New York rush hour traffic on the base paths, while Clay Holmes (4.30 ERA, 4.05 xERA) is staying in line with expectations. A big reason they’re dodging damage is the double play and a timely strikeout, which has become their best ally in limiting scoring chances and erasing mistakes.

Bad: Too many walks in the park for the Mets rotation.

The Mets’ rotation has had a troubling tendency to lose the strike zone. Four of the five starters rank in the bottom 35% of the league in walk rate, putting them in uncomfortable positions. Tylor Megill (11.3%), Griffin Canning (12.3%), David Peterson (11.3%), and Clay Holmes (13%) are all allowing too many free passes. The lone exception is Kodai Senga, who’s keeping his control in check at 7.7%. As a group, they’re tied for second in MLB with 35 walks and carry a 4.46 BB/9. With this many base runners, it’s only a matter of time before things implode.

Good: Mets starters keep striking out, and for once, that’s a good thing.

The Mets’ rotation has had no trouble missing bats, and that’s been a huge part of how they’ve wriggled out of tough spots so far this season. They rank second in MLB with a 10.06 K/9 and sit sixth in total strikeouts with 79. Kodai Senga leads the way with a 30.8% strikeout rate, followed by Clay Holmes (29%) and Tylor Megill (27.4%). Even David Peterson is holding his own at 23%. Griffin Canning’s 20% clip is the only one that lags, but overall, this group is bringing plenty of swing-and-miss to the table.

Bad: Life hits hard, and so are the Met's opponents.

The Mets’ rotation is getting a harsh reality check when it comes to hard contact. Four of the five starters rank in the bottom 30% of the league for hard-hit percentage. Tylor Megill (47.4%), Kodai Senga (45.8%), David Peterson (50%), and Griffin Canning (59.1%) are all letting batters square up the ball too often. Clay Holmes (35.9%) is the only one avoiding consistent damage, but even his numbers aren’t exactly comforting. With so many balls being hammered, it’s only a matter of time before those hard hits break through and start leaving up crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

In the end, the Mets’ rotation feels like a first few dates, there’s potential, but plenty of room for improvement. They’re getting out of jams, racking up strikeouts, and showing flashes of brilliance, but the walks and hard-hit balls are putting them in uncomfortable spots. Like any relationship, consistency will be key, and if they can clean up these rough patches, they could turn into something truly special.