1 clear NY Mets roster upgrade, 1 likely downgrade, 1 strong push from last year

Downgrade: At least one of Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, or Paul Blackburn will significantly worse than the starters last year

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. This normally applies to a mistake. What about when things go unexpectedly well? The Mets have gone about building their rotation the same exact way for 2025 as they did in 2024. Three questionable arms will be there from the start of the battle.

Frankie Montas can be considered this year’s crossbreed of Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. Excellent at times in the past, he has battled through injuries and less productive seasons recently. There isn’t anyone from last year to compare Clay Holmes to. He’s a really good reliever the Mets will try to turn into a starting pitcher. Then there’s Paul Blackburn who continues to loiter on the roster with an unsatisfying upside.

At least one of these pitchers is going to look awful. I’m confident one could be good. Another might reach the bare minimum of what we expect. For all three to thrive with the Mets, stay healthy, and help repeat last year’s success is way too optimistic of an outlook. This isn’t how things go. Not even the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers had a rotation where all went well for them last year with more proven commodities. Walker Buehler stunk in the regular season. Their army of aces failed to make it through the year due to health related issues. Their plan this coming year seems to be to have backups for the backups. Long gone are the days of signing a depleted Noah Syndergaard hoping they can turn his career around.

We can cross our fingers, wish upon a star, and toss a penny in a well. Three huge gambles in the rotation should have the odds stacked against them all working out.