Top Cardinals prospect wrongfully bests NY Mets rookie Nolan McLean in preseason poll

Preseason Rookie of the Year projections are supposed to reflect how a season is expected to unfold. That is why a recent front-office poll placing Nolan McLean just outside the top spot stands out. For the New York Mets, McLean is not entering the year as a name to monitor or a long-term idea. He is entering it as someone already factored into how this season is expected to go.

Not every rookie shows up at the same stage of the process. Some are arriving to be evaluated. Others are arriving with something already established. McLean and JJ Wetherholt are being talked about side by side, but they are not starting from the same place. That difference is easy to gloss over right now, and it is exactly where this ranking deserves a closer look.

Nolan McLean has already cleared the biggest ROTY hurdle

That does not mean JJ Wetherholt is overrated. Far from it. Being the fifth overall prospect in baseball and the Cardinals’ top prospect carries weight for a reason. He’s a shortstop, which always plays well in award conversations, and his 2025 season between Double-A and Triple-A backed up the hype. A .306/.421/.510 line with 17 home runs and 59 RBIs in 408 at-bats is exactly what teams want to see at that level.

But that résumé still stops short of the majors. He heads into spring training trying to win a job, facing a jump in pitching quality, and figuring out how his game holds up against big-league arms. Until those at-bats happen, everything attached to him is still a projection.

McLean no longer has to clear that hurdle. He did so last season and handled it well. In 2025, he worked 48 innings with a 2.06 ERA, allowing 34 hits and 16 walks while striking out 57. The supporting numbers align with the results. A 2.96 FIP, far better than league average, a 196 ERA+, and a 60.2 percent ground-ball rate point to real, repeatable success.

His biggest separator is his ability to spin the ball. McLean’s curveball has already proven difficult for major league hitters, thrown 16 percent of the time and limiting opponents to a .074 batting average and .074 slugging percentage. Just as important, he now has a feel for the level. He’s seen how hitters respond, how pressure builds, and how quickly mistakes get punished. That familiarity matters, especially in an award race that tends to favor what has already shown it can translate.