Steamer projections for NY Mets rookie Nolan McLean are insulting

Steamer projections are already out over on Fangraphs and what they had to say about sensational New York Mets rookie Nolan McLean is insulting.

After going 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 48 innings for the Mets in 2025, the steamer machine has him going 10-9 with a 3.76 ERA in 2026. It's a likely scenario to see him decline in some regards over a larger sample. This much?

The ERA is worse than David Peterson who gets a courtesy 3.69 ERA, significantly down from the 4.22 he finished the year with. What’s going on here? Why no love for McLean?

2026 projections for Nolan McLean aren't looking superb, what did they predict for 2025?

A few examples from last year’s projections had Kodai Senga finishing with a 3.78 ERA, Sean Manaea at 4.04, and Clay Holmes at 3.57. They practically nailed Holmes’ season. He was at 3.53.

Nobody’s perfect, especially a mathematical algorithm to predict statistics. However, there seems to be no genuine basis as to why McLean is going to go from phenom to whatever this projection has him at.

He projects to be worse in about every regard. A smaller strikeout rate, a slight rise in walks per 9, and a dip from 60.2% ground balls to a more reasonable yet superb 50%. He’ll go from 1.2 fWAR up to 2.2 which isn’t so spectacular and falls right between Peterson and Holmes.

A 2.2 fWAR is the same posted by Jack Leiter last year whose 10-10 season and 3.86 ERA is close to what is projected for McLean. Leiter finished 7th in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. It was a productive full season for the second-generation talent yet hardly the kind of campaign Mets fans are hoping to get out of McLean in what will be his first full year in the majors.

McLean is sure to face more adversity than he did in his 8 starts last year. A near 4.00 ERA won’t fly for a Mets club that’ll depend on him to be a top arm not just for them but in the entire MLB.