Surprisingly effective NY Mets pitcher has a plan that might epically backfire

New York Mets reliever Reed Garrett enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, transforming himself into one of the National League's most surprisingly effective pitchers. His success stemmed from a dramatic shift in his pitching arsenal.

Garrett prioritized his split-finger and sweeper over his fastball, a move that improved his ERA from 6.41 in 2023 to 3.77 in 2024. But now, Garrett is tinkering with his fastball, a decision that could jeopardize everything he's accomplished.

Reed Garrett's risky fastball gamble could tragically backfire if it doesn't work.

Garrett's 2024 performance was a revelation. He went from a struggling pitcher to a reliable bullpen arm, thanks largely to a change in pitch distribution. In 2023, his four-seam fastball was his primary weapon, thrown 31% of the time. The results were underwhelming, where hitters batted .286 against it with a .476 slugging percentage and a .639 expected slugging, signaling even worse underlying metrics.

Fast forward to 2024, and Garrett unveiled a new approach. His split finger became his go-to pitch, used 27.1% of the time. The transformation was remarkable where opponents could only muster a .132 average and a microscopic .158 slugging against it while whiffing a staggering 51.1% of the time. He also introduced a sweeper, which he used nearly 20% of the time, with similarly impressive results, showing a .171 average and a strong .200 slugging against it.

Meanwhile, his four-seam fastball became a liability. While he managed to increase whiffs on the pitch compared to 2023, the results when hitters did make contact were disastrous. The batting average against it ballooned to .400, with a slugging percentage mirroring the dismal expected slugging from the previous year of .686. Even more concerning, when hitters connected, they did so with authority, averaging a 95.1 mph exit velocity.

While fastballs are essential for setting up breaking balls and offspeed pitches, Garrett's four-seamer seems to be the wrong tool for the job. Rather than focusing on his four-seamer, Garrett might be better served refining his cutter. While hitters had a .500 expected slugging against it, the underlying metrics suggest it's a better pitch than his fastball, and it already generates a respectable 34.2% whiff rate.

Garrett's decision to focus on his four-seamer carries significant risk. It could backfire spectacularly, potentially undoing the progress he made in 2024. While a commitment to improvement is admirable, a careful evaluation of pitch effectiveness is crucial. Tweaking pitches is a positive sign of a pitcher's dedication, but choosing the right pitches to refine is paramount to sustained success. For Reed Garrett, doubling down on his four-seamer might be a gamble he can't afford to take.