Development of these NY Mets prospects might make a full bullpen blow-up less likely

The New York Mets are one of the few clear sellers at this year's deadline but their approach to striking deals is more nuanced than that of other teams in the same boat. In a recent interview with Anthony DiComo, David Stearns reiterated that he expects to be competitive in 2027, eliminating the likelihood of a full rebuild. The team will retain their core of talent that includes rookies like A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge as well as tenured veterans like Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.

This leaves a bulk of their pitching talent up for grabs with many of their arms on expiring contracts. Jeff Passan stated that he expected the club to make up to six trades in the days leading up to the deadline with Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes serving as some of the more notable assets on offer. The Mets could also sell off their bullpen pieces given the strong interest in Luke Weaver but the status of their up-and-coming pitching prospects might force them to take a steadier approach.

The Mets have two top 30 prospects currently pitching in Triple-A Syracuse and neither are looking particularly promising

Dylan Ross was a 13th-round draft pick in 2022 out of the University of Georgia and is currently the Mets' No. 28 prospect. After a dominant 2025 in which he posted a 2.17 ERA and 3.32 FIP over 54 innings, 2026 has been a major step back. Like last season, he has spent much of the year in Syracuse but his numbers have regressed significantly. Across 24.1 innings, he has pitched to a 8.51 ERA and 6.57 FIP.

The biggest issue seems to be his lack of control. His walk rate has increased from 14.7% in 2025 to 17.7% this year and just 40.2% of his total pitches in Triple-A have been in the strike zone. He still manages to miss bats when he does land his pitches in the zone but he also has a penchant for giving up hard contact. His barrel rate has quintupled from 1.5% in 2025 to 7.6% in 2026.

Ryan Lambert has a remarkably similar story. Drafted in the 8th round out of the University of Oklahoma in 2024, Lambert had a promising 1.62 ERA and 2.13 FIP across 50 minor league innings last season. This year, his ERA has swelled up to a 6.35 with his FIP following suit, ballooning to 6.05.

He has demonstrated slightly better control than Ross but not by much. He's generally finding the zone more frequently than Ross, especially with his fastball, but he has also walked more batters, giving up free passes at a 21.7% clip. His two pitch arsenal grades out well in terms of Stuff+ but poor location has given opposing hitters a major advantage against him. Like Ross, Lambert has the ability to generate swing-and-miss but failing to find the zone consistently is giving up far more traffic than he should be.

If the Mets want to be competitive in 2027 as Stearns stated, it doesn't seem like they can quite afford to sell off all of their bullpen. Although there are some pitching prospects in the system that are moving in the right direction, the team will need at least a few viable relievers if they want a fair shot at the postseason next year. Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, and Huascar Brazobán may all be shopped around but the Mets can't afford to lose everyone just yet.

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