Updated NY Mets prospect ranking confirms two things about the Freddy Peralta trade

Three top 30 prospects for Freddy Peralta can be spun in a variety of ways. You probably already had your mind somewhat made up about the trade before the New York Mets even made it. Looking at it objectively, the truth is nobody really knows.

We graded it right below average, taking into account how none of the three prospects are particularly great. The deal favored quantity over quality. It was a reasonable enough trade given Peralta’s performance and the price of what it takes to acquire a starting pitcher this week.

MLB Pipeline didn’t waste much time telling us what they think of the trade. After acquiring the Tampa Bay Rays’ 15th, 26th, and 27th prospects, the trio of Aidan Smith, Gary Gill Hill, and Emilien Pitre move to 12th, 17th, and 15th; Gill Hill and Pitre swapping places. 

From it, we can draw two conclusions.

We learned the Mets might have done pretty well with this trade

They didn’t snag the best Rays prospects, but they definitely have some new ones ranking well enough within their own system. Three top 20 prospects is pretty good even if it bumps Bruins Agbayani further down the list than where he sat when the Mets acquired him for A.J. Minter.

Cole Mathis, the club’s 16th ranked prospect acquired for David Peterson all by himself, is right there with them. We felt differently about that trade because Peterson was heading into DFA territory.

The middle of the Mets’ top 30 prospects is now completely different. Prospects ranking 10-20 have probably a 33% chance of climbing up with another 60% chance of sliding down quickly. The remaining 7% have them sitting right there in the teens forever.

We also learned just how bad the Mets farm system is

With the climb up in the system upon changing organizations, we get a reminder of how much better the Rays’ system is than the Mets. Smith slotting in at 12th despite such a bad year alerts us to how weak the depth is for New York. Pitre, who is having a pretty good year in Double-A, ascends far higher than where he sat with Tampa Bay. The same applies for Gill Hill.

Any remaining trades the Mets make before the deadline are sure to have some of those same results. One team’s 10th ranked prospect can end up as the best or second best for a Mets organization whose number one guy currently, Jonah Tong, is only there because of how well he did a year ago.

We shouldn’t change how we feel about this trade because of where the prospects rank with their new team. We should base our thoughts on the numbers and put a little bit of trust into the scouting reports and analysis provided within those rankings. 

Just as an example, 2023 had those same numbered prospects, 12, 15, and 17, as Joel Diaz, Nick Morabito, and Jacob Reimer. Diaz has an ERA over 8.00 this year, Morabito is projecting to be a bench player at best, and Reimer remains an intriguing prospect with power but still also only a .212 hitter in Double-A.

Regardless of it all, the Mets have the best odds at coming away feeling like winners simply because the only way the Rays can raise the W is if they win a World Series with Peralta. The Mets, meanwhile, can get a few years out of these three prospects while hoping one becomes the next Brandon Sproat or Jett Williams.

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