Don't attempt to adjust your adulation for NY Mets prospect who fell in the top 100

At this time last season, Brandon Sproat had been freshly called up to pitch for the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies. He tossed 5 shutout frames against the Bowie Baysox in his Double-A debut on his way to eventually working his way to a Triple-A promotion a week into August. Regarded as the number one or two best New York Mets prospect for much of last season, seeing him drop 28 spots in the latest MLB Pipeline rankings raises some alarm bells or at least a pleasant wind chime.

No other prospect who remained within the top 100 fell further than Sproat. He went from 40th to 68th which is a big fall but perhaps partly the result of being over-ranked to begin with. Sproat struggled in Triple-A last year and, yet again, has been getting smacked around by Triple-A bats in 2025.

The explanation for his drop has to do with none of his pitches having a whiff rate above 30% and his four-seamer being hittable despite a velocity in the 95-97 mph range. His walk rate is also up at 4.2 per 9 with the strikeouts at a meager 7.1 per 9. It’s easy to overreact to the minor fall from grace from a subjective list. How panicked should we be?

We can’t panic over Brandon Sproat’s Triple-A results after only 14 starts or where he ranks on anyone's list

If 14 games was all a player got, many would have never made it. Sproat made 7 starts last year and has made the same this season. While it all comes out to a 2-5 record and 6.19 ERA, he has made minor improvements this year. His disastrous 2.2 home runs per 9 in 2024 is down at 0.3 per 9 this year. Pitching a little more carefully and avoiding the home run ball, his increase in walks is frustrating but the lack of home runs at least reminds us how tough he can be on hitters. How will this change when the summer heat arrives full-time?

Sproat is getting passed over on lists like MLB Pipeline by guys like Nolan McLean and maybe soon enough by Jonah Tong as well. Triple-A has been a battleground for many Mets pitchers. It’s the last stop before the majors and a final boss you’d need a cheat code to get through with flying colors.

Many of Sproat’s outings this year have been short, never once facing more than 19 batters in a game. He has gone 5+ innings only twice. His most recent outing, which included 85 pitches, was the most he has thrown in any performance.

The game logs tell us a story that doesn’t appear to belong to a top pitching prospect. His 6 shutout innings on April 18 included just one strikeout. He has walked a batter in every game this year. However, only twice in 7 starts has he given up more than 2 earned runs. His first and fifth starts of the year did the majority of damage to his ERA.

Sproat was originally considered to be an easy choice to help the Mets out in 2025. Maybe it isn’t meant to be. He rushed through the minors last year and Triple-A is giving him fits. A minor bump in the road and not a full-blown sinkhole just yet, let this notation of being the biggest freefall among top MLB prospects be the motivation he needs.