FanGraphs gives NY Mets prospect the credit he deserves with a dose of reality

Now that New York Mets Opening Day is a little over a month away, there has been no shortage of prospect lists and rankings. Each publication is releasing their own list of young names to watch and while most share similarities at the top, the bottom 50 are where we see some fun variability.

FanGraphs is the most recent publication to throw their hat in the ring, publishing their list of top prospects along with brief but informative scouting reports on each player. They gave the Mets five spots on the list, one of which now belongs to yet another young starter in a burgeoning farm system.

Jack Wenninger was ranked as a Top 100 prospect by FanGraphs but projects him as a back-of-the-rotation arm

Wenninger has been an unsuspecting pitching talent since college. Over three seasons, the last two of which were spent with Illinois, he posted a 5.03 ERA over 166.1 innings, hardly numbers to write home about. Nonetheless, he managed to get picked up in the sixth round of the 2023 draft by the Mets and has been making steady progress through the minor leagues, peaking in Double-A last year with a 2.92 ERA over 135.2 innings.

FanGraphs gave him credit for these improvements, noting his increased velocity and intelligent pitch sequencing with his four-seam fastball, sinker, and splitter. However, since he's being groomed as a starter, they showed less excitement about the rest of his arsenal, especially his breaking balls.

"Wenninger’s curve and slider overlap substantially to the point where we’re not always sure which is which, and the slider in particular can look like a tighter, harder version of his curve. That flavor of slider may be the best version of all his breaking balls, as the mid-80s, 11-5 bender is the one that looks nastiest visually. We don’t mind the inconsistent shapes — it could actually be advantageous for him — but the inconsistent quality is a bigger issue, as he’ll show you anything from a 40 to the occasional 60. Regardless of what they look like, we want to see fewer flat, soft, and backed-up breakers, because those are going to get him in trouble. "

FanGraphs

Because of these arsenal limitations, he's being projected as a No. 4 starter. His durability and ability to limit walks (7.6% BB rate in 2025) make him a good candidate to eat innings for a big league rotation but his lack of dominant stuff prevents him from a more crucial role at this time.

But the most exciting thing about Wenninger is how far he's already come and other outlets are starting to share that optimism. He was picked as a possible candidate to crack MLB Pipeline's Top 100 soon and he could even find a path to getting called up this year.

He'll turn 24 just before the conclusion of spring training, giving him a few more years to put the pieces together. The Mets likely aren't in a huge rush, especially given the current logjam in the rotation, but they could deploy Wenninger out of the bullpen in the interim, giving him some big league reps without giving him too much responsibility.

He's far from having the same pedigree as his fellow farmhands Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong but he's at least getting some recognition for his great work so far. He may only be seen as a No. 4 starter at most but with the right adjustments, there's no telling what he'll be able to accomplish.