Common problem can hold back NY Mets prospect from a timely MLB debut

New York Mets prospect Jonathan Santucci has had a solid minor league season this year. After posting a 3.57 ERA and 3.08 FIP across 90.2 innings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A, named an Eastern League All-Star, and finished his season with 163 strikeouts, more than any pitcher in the minor leagues.

His numbers with Syracuse weren't great but he pitched just 34.1 innings and he maintained an impressive strikeout rate of 27.7% with a whiff rate of 35.0%, landing him in the 95th percentile. He's on the cusp of making his big league debut but the Mets may not be able to call him up if he doesn't fix his biggest weakness, the same one that has held back even the most electric arms in baseball.

Jonathan Santucci will need to find the strike zone more frequently before he finds his way to the major leagues

Santucci has struggled with control all year but he was able to get away with it in Double-A, where he posted a 12.0% walk rate. Unfortunately, hitters in Triple-A are less prone to mistakes and exercise better swing decisions and big league hitters are even more disciplined. His walk rate rose to 13.5% but that wasn't the only downside of his lack of control.

When behind in counts, pitchers are typically forced to throw whatever pitch they can command for strikes which more often than not ends up being their fastball. The problem with Santucci is that his most effective pitches have been his slider and curveball, both of which have whiff rates of 40% or more.

His fastball, on the other hand, has a whiff rate of just 20.2% and an xwOBA of .414. So in addition to having a higher than expected walk rate in Triple-A, he has given up some loud contact. Opposing hitters have a barrel rate of 9.3% and their average exit velocity is 90.1 mph.

Throwing strikes is one of the most important skills to have as a starting pitcher. Waste pitches create hitter's counts and longer at-bats, neither of which is conducive to getting through five or six innings. It's even more impressive that Santucci has been as effective as he has been while missing so frequently but he'll have to start spotting up at least a little more if he wants to be a viable arm for the Mets every fifth day.

One could argue that there's no better place to learn than the majors. After all, the Mets have been known to keep their top prospect talent in the minors for too long so giving Santucci a shot at the big leagues early next year may not be the worst idea in the world. The club will be in need of rotation help in 2027 and unless the front office decides to pursue assistance in the form of a veteran player, promoting one of their own prospects could be the best move.

Santucci will have all offseason to dial in the control and if he does, he could be exactly what this club needs to get back into the postseason picture. He won't be able to do it single-handedly but if he manages to carry his success in the minors into the majors, he'll undoubtedly be a significant piece of what works next year.

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