How the proposed MLB salary cap would hurt the NY Mets the most

A big part of the labor war between MLB and the MLBPA will be the implementation of a salary cap. MLB has proposed a $258.2 million cap along with a $180.2 million floor. If the sport ends up with one, the New York Mets are a team that will have to adjust how they operate.

Steve Cohen’s wallet becomes less important yet not fully obsolete. Looking at this $258.2 million number, we at least get a ballpark as to what point the owners will be willing to bend. It’s still more than $20 million more than what the current team payroll is at $281.7 million with projected arbitration salaries. It doesn’t include what we’d have to believe will be roughly $40-45 million minimum spent on improving the rotation whether that’s Tarik Skubal or a combination of players like Clay Holmes and Michael King.

A salary cap changes the Mets’ way of thinking. Moreover, it might eliminate how David Stearns has preferred to stay short-term with contracts. Stretching out salaries over more years will become a must.

The Mets won’t be able to cram larger AAVs into shorter contracts

This isn’t a Stearns exclusive. When the Mets signed Max Scherzer and then did so with Justin Verlander a year later, the Mets showed they were willing to bypass a reasonable yearly salary if it meant escaping contracts early.

Two players sitting on the current roster seem to fit this vibe perfectly. Sean Manaea’s three-year deal worth $75 million felt more like four years’ worth of money over three seasons. Even more fitting for this description is how the Mets paid Jorge Polanco $40 million over two years. It was money he could have gotten in free agency, but most teams would have gone to a third year.

We see the benefit to what the Mets do with those two players. The Mets are lucky to have Manaea and Polanco up for free agency after the 2027 season. Imagine if instead of the higher than expected AAVs they received the Mets were paying those same total salaries with one more year left to go. Stearns has been consistent about this. The Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien trade had its focal point on freeing up salary space in the near future.

A salary cap in MLB means no more Bo Bichette getting $42 million from the Mets. Juan Soto probably still gets what he got at the sacrifice of maybe not signing Polanco in the first place. Oh the humanity!

The Mets are able to navigate a salary capped league with more reliance on their young players as well as adjusting certain deals that spread out the cash. Stearns and Company will find other ways to remain cap-friendly and cap-creative. It starts by taking fewer chances on players such as Polanco or realizing Frankie Montas is hardly worth $17 million a year with a player option on the second season for the same.

The first obstacle would be to get cap compliant in the first place. Already over the proposed cap before spending a cent, we have to fully believe the Mets are again a $300+ million team. A salary cap in place for 2028 could, however, mean fewer upcoming moves after the 2027 season. A payroll of $340 million or so for New York in 2027 can get quickly reduced by subtracting Manaea ($25 million), Polanco ($20 million), and Kodai Senga ($15 million). The challenge is finding the right replacements in a pool of affordable players.

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