Buster Olney "bet the farm" with another NY Mets prediction before George Springer

It got referenced yesterday because Buster Olney is expecting the New York Mets to sign Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez. His infamous 2020 “just about to bet the farm” on the idea of the Mets signing George Springer lives on in infamy.

He must love the term because in 2018, Olney bet the farm on a few things for the coming season. Some were pretty right. He thought Aaron Judge would improve. He believed Ronald Acuna Jr. would become a superstar sooner than later.

There were, of course, some predictions that had him packing up the cows for whomever won the farm in the bet. He started off with one about the Mets, saying that if Noah Syndergaard stayed healthy enough to make 30 starts he’d finish first, second, or third in the NL Cy Young.

How close was Buster Olney on this Mets prediction?

Olney protected himself with the 30 starts. Thor ended up with 25 and no Cy Young votes at all.

It was still a strong bounceback season for Syndergaard. A 13-4 record and 3.03 ERA, it was his last truly significantly strong year. He stayed healthy in 2019 but led the league with 94 earned runs and a 4.28 ERA. Then came Tommy John surgery in early 2020. His future was bleak thereafter.

It’s remarkable the 2018 Mets ended up as bad as they were despite the solid campaign from Syndergaard. Jacob deGrom managed to win his first Cy Young with an all-time great year for any Mets pitcher. Zack Wheeler, at 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA, impressed as well. Even Steven Matz and his 3.97 ERA with 30 starts had a halfway decent year.

What sent that team spiraling was the offense. Yoenis Cespedes barely played. Michael Conforto led the team in games played in center field with Austin Jackson as the runner-up. Brandon Nimmo finally began to play more regularly and put up a 4.6 WAR season with a .404 OBP.

Their shortcomings came from the free agents they brought in. Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Vargas, and Anthony Swarzak were a gruesome fivesome. The bullpen was a disaster outside of Jeurys Familia and Seth Lugo.

As far as the prediction goes, Olney picked the wrong Mets pitcher and would’ve been wrong even if Syndergaard’s numbers held and improved with more starts. He wasn’t close to catching deGrom, Max Scherzer, or Aaron Nola who finished one, two, and three. In most seasons, Scherzer or Nola would have been an easy choice. Not 2018. That was Jake's turn.

There’d be a little more sympathy if the total starts was at 25 and this was a prediction that would put the Olney Farm on the market. No doubt he’d get to visit the corn maze for free every October because, while wrong, this wasn’t so completely off.