Predicting how things will end with NY Mets manager Carlos Mendoza in 2026

Carlos Mendoza is in the final year of his New York Mets contract. The lame duck situation puts added pressure on him to get off to a strong start. It doesn’t help that the coaching staff already underwent major changes in the offseason, but holding onto the skipper at least shows some level of faith from the front office.

It’s not actually that unusual for a manager or front office executive to go into a season with an expiring contract. MLB Trade Rumors ran through the league. 19 teams have or are speculated to employ someone on an expiring contract.

The resolution for any of these people is clear. A bad start, you don’t last the year. An underwhelming finish, you get to complete the season but you’re gone afterwards. Something mediocre, the team moves in a different direction. It seems the odds of retaining someone like Mendoza aren’t so great given there’s only one outcome that’ll truly justify it. So, what’s going to happen?

The Mets will be faced with a tough Carlos Mendoza decision at the end of 2026

I do think the Mets make the playoffs. They might even win a round. Getting to the NLDS and putting up a semi-suitable fight versus a division winner is a step in the right direction. Is it large enough to maintain Mendoza for a new contract?

Reaching the NLCS should award Mendoza with at least two more years, possibly three. The NLDS is less of a guarantee, but strong enough for it. For the Mets, it might not be as much about how far they go but the style in which they get there.

The Mets will need signs that things are getting better. The 2024 season ended strongly after a rough start. Mendoza bought additional time for a season like the Mets had in 2025. He won’t have the luxury in 2026. The arrow is already pointing toward this being his final year if the Mets come up well short of expectations again.

David Stearns’ history with managers gives us no preview of what’s to come. Craig Counsell was the only manager he had with the Milwaukee Brewers. Stearns inherited him from Doug Melvin. They had a lot of success together and parted ways after the 2023 season. Stearns stepped down after 2022 and went into an advisory role for Milwaukee. Counsell’s contract ran out.

Mendoza was a handpicked choice by Stearns, but Kai Correa seems to fit the mold more of what we think the Mets POBO prefers. Both of their computers run slowly because of all of the FanGraphs tabs they have open. It’s Correa who seems like a solid candidate to replace Mendoza. The overturned coaching staff won’t once again undergo major changes unless the season is a complete disaster.

The Mets also have the big card to pull by sending Carlos Beltran back into the dugout from his front office role. The Mets didn’t hire any ex-players this last round for the coaching staff. One possibility would always be for Correa to elevate to manager and Beltran to become his bench coach. The problem is Correa goes into the job with his predecessor right there.

Going from John Gibbons, an ex-manager who wasn’t going to take Mendoza’s job, to a future manager candidate like Correa seems like a hint. 

A mutual parting of ways will be the way this relationship between the Mets and Mendoza ends. The odds are always against winning a championship. The Mets won’t and Stearns will move on. His quick trigger finger with players will carry over to Mendoza who’ll appreciate some relief from all of the arrows he’ll take once again in 2026.