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NY Mets playoff odds after beating the Cubs according to FanGraphs

FanGraphs thinks the Mets are making the playoffs and gives them good World Series odds, too.
ByTim Boyle|
Sep 25, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The New York Mets celebrate their win against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
Sep 25, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The New York Mets celebrate their win against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

An 8-5 win on Thursday gave the New York Mets a full game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final Wild Card spot. There is no sigh of relief. With the Reds owning the tie-breaker over the Mets, we’re one day away from slipping out.

According to FanGraphs, you won’t be a fool to go buy that bottle of champagne from the liquor store you pass by on the way home from work.Not that one. No, the other one. The one with the Starbucks across the street. Where the teen on the e-bike obnoxiously rode past you? Not that one. No, the other one.

Per FanGraphs, the Mets have a 78.8% chance of making the playoffs. More amazingly, the Mets have better odds to win the World Series than some clubs already locked into a playoff spot.

FanGraphs seems to really like what the Mets have

A 6.5% just to win the World Series isn’t great, but that’s what FanGraphs has for the Mets. It’s about twice as good for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, the two clubs the Mets could have to go through in order to earn the National League Pennant.

FanGraphs isn’t looking down so kindly on the Chicago Cubs. Despite inching closer to hosting their first round of the playoffs, their World Series winning odds are only at 3.6%. Has a Billy Goat been spotted at Wrigley recently?

The algorithm must believe the winner of the full NL Wild Card matchup will limp out of the fight completely bruised. The San Diego Padres have only a 5.3% chance to win the World Series. Although better than the Cubs, it’s behind the Mets who have yet to even secure a playoff berth. In fact, the Mets don’t even have a competent third starter for a best of three series.

Odds are different from destiny and sometimes even perceived reality. We’ll take the positivity FanGraphs is spewing. Taking 2 out of 3 on the road versus the Cubs was huge, but no fan is clearing their October calendar believing there’ll be extended Mets playoff action.

With just a 1.8% chance of making the playoffs, the Mets still need to be cautious about the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their 0% odds of winning the World Series is a slap in the face. No one tell them.

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