Why young NY Mets players won't get extension offers after Tarik Skubal's win

Tarik Skubal getting $32 million instead of the $19 million filed by the Detroit Tigers should have a lot of teams thinking. Is it time to pay their young players before it gets to that point? The New York Mets will reap the reward of one of those deals in 2026. At $8 million, Freddy Peralta is making close to a fourth of what he would as a free agent. The Milwaukee Brewers extended him early and with extra years. They may not get his services in 2026, but they should feel good about the decision. Landing two top 100 prospects for him was possible because of it.

How about the Mets? Skubal’s arbitration win shouldn’t have them rushing to change their minds about anything. Nolan McLean is years away from earning $30+ million per season via the arbitration process. For now, we can understand why they might not be so eager to increase the salaries of guys making the league minimum. Every dollar over the luxury tax is costing them 110% extra.

Don’t expect the Mets to start handing out long-term contracts to young players except in rare cases

Buying out arbitration years and more is a small market strategy. The Brewers assumed very little risk with Peralta. The last two years, with his salary finally reaching $8 million, were on team options. At worst they were paying $5.7 million to him in 2024 while he struggles to find a spot in the majors somewhere else.

Under Steve Cohen, we have yet to see a young player have his arbitration years bought out. Tomas Nido got an extension. So did Jeff McNeil. They don’t qualify in the same category as guys like McLean or the player who seems even more likely to get the early extension, Carson Benge.

Mathematically, it doesn’t make much sense to add anything to the payroll that isn’t necessary. They can reward high performances with a bump up in salary. There’s no reason why the Mets couldn’t simply give a player like McLean $1 million in 2027 if things go well again in 2026. It’s only a small bump from the $820K minimum he’ll receive in 2026.

David Stearns’ unwillingness to sign starting pitchers long-term may be a cousin of the early extension for a young player. It’s much different as the cost to buy out those arbitration years is far less significant than to sign a free agent. Flexibility is always important as is the escape hatch when a young player starts off their career strong then struggles or becomes a perpetually injured player.

It would be a show of good faith by the Mets front office to ponder these thoughts. When has Stearns shown any sign he thinks with his heart instead of his head?

The Mets have an estimated tax bill of over $82 million at the moment. Increasing the AAV on the salary of someone you can have at less than a million to even a light number like $5 million would actually end up at an $11 million rate because of the penalties.

What’s more, the expiring CBA should have the Mets thinking twice about doing anything with long-term effects. We want the Mets to spend. The far wiser move is to do what they’ve been doing.