2025 NY Mets player outlook: Francisco Alvarez expectations and predictions

It is that time again when we start looking ahead to the 2025 New York Mets season. The Mets are a team with lofty expectations this season. Over the next few weeks, I will be making stat predictions for the Mets on an individual basis, starting with catcher Francisco Alvarez.

Francisco Alvarez has shown promise to be a franchise catcher throughout his young career, from his excellent raw power to effective planning for a pitching staff. He has already gained respect around many in the Mets clubhouse for his leadership at 23 years old. But this will be an important year for him to get back on track as his due for his first round of arbitration after this season.

Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez will regain some of his power from 2023 and he will grow into being a more well-rounded catcher.

Last season including the playoffs, the Mets were 65-33 when Alvarez was in the starting lineup. Alvarez was productive at the start of the season before he suffered a left thumb sprain, which kept him out for nearly two months. Those two months he missed were when the Mets bullpen struggled to protect late leads, while the catcher position was a big cavity in the lineup. Neither Omar Narvaez nor Tomas Nido could adequately replace his impact on the roster, hence why the Mets traded for Luis Torrens to back up Alvarez upon his return in June.

When he came back in June, the team started to win more often thanks to his leadership behind the plate, which was no coincidence because of the leadership he brings from behind the plate.

It may have been his finger issue, but Alvarez’s promising power display was not there for much of last season. After clubbing 25 home runs in 2023, he hit just 11 last year. If the Mets want to win a competitive division this year, they will need him to recapture some of the pop that got fans excited two years ago.

Alvarez made more contact this season then he did last year, which was impressive because pitchers threw low and away more last year, particularly sliders. He will need to lay off breaking balls more, as he hit just .159 off them last season, mainly because it was seen as the best pitch to put him away last year. Having Juan Soto in the clubhouse will help him be a more selective hitter.

Alvarez also improved on throwing runners out from the previous season. He went from throwing 13.2 percent of runners in 2023 to 17.5 in 2024, but is still below league averag by three points. I think he can get to 20 percent this season.

In what looks like a top-heavy lineup, Alvarez lengthening the lineup will go a long way to helping the team be successful in 2025. He might be the most important Mets position player not named Lindor or Soto.

2025 stat predictions .245 batting average, 20 HR, 65 RBI, .730 OPS