Frankie Montas isn’t the NY Mets player closest to losing his roster spot

The New York Mets, in their pursuit of a competitive rotation, have seen mixed results from their mid-tier offseason acquisitions. While Frankie Montas has been moved to the bullpen after a rocky performance in the season, another pitcher on the roster is arguably in a more precarious position.

Montas, who signed a two-year, $34 million deal with a player option after 2025, has a contract that offers the team a degree of control and a significant financial commitment. This investment makes the Mets more likely to try and salvage his performance. However, for another pitcher on the staff, the path forward is far less certain.

Financial commitment, control, and performance have Paul Blackburn as the likelier roster cut

The pitcher in question is Paul Blackburn. In a small sample in 2025, Blackburn performance has been a cause for concern, and with his contract status, he is arguably the most likely candidate to be removed from the roster. While Montas has the backing of a larger, multi-year contract, Blackburn is playing on a one-year, $4.05 million deal for the 2025 season and is set to become a free agent in 2026. This lack of long-term commitment from the team makes him a more expendable piece, especially given his struggles on the mound.

Blackburn has seen his command and stuff decline this season, with his strikeout and walk rates worsening while maintaining an xERA above 5.00, suggesting his expected true level is low. Blackburn has an average exit velocity of 88.7 MPH against him. This suggests that when batters make contact, they are hitting the ball hard. While he has shown some ability to throw pitches on the edge of the zone, with an above-average rate of 46%, the overall effectiveness of his pitches has been lacking.

His four-seam fastball averages 92.4 MPH, with his sinker slightly slower at 91.8 MPH. His curveball, although featuring a significant vertical drop, is thrown in the strike zone only 30% of the time. The inconsistency in his pitch command and the hard contact he's allowing are major red flags. With a groundball rate of 40.0%, he isn't generating enough weak contact to offset the power he's giving up.

When you consider Blackburn's contract status alongside his on-field performance, the writing seems to be on the wall. Frankie Montas has a guaranteed contract, giving the team a reason to work with him and see if he can turn things around. Releasing Montas would mean the Mets would still be on the hook for a significant amount of money.

Blackburn, on the other hand, will be a free agent after this season. With a one-year contract and a performance that has been well below expectations, the Mets have little financial incentive to keep him on the major league roster. If the team needs to make a move for another pitcher or to clear a spot for a prospect, Blackburn is the most logical choice.

While Montas's demotion to the bullpen is a sign of his struggles, his roster spot is far from gone. Paul Blackburn, with his poor 2025 stats, unfavorable advanced metrics, and impending free agency, is the more likely candidate to be removed from the team's plans entirely.