What the 2026 expected stats tell us about these NY Mets pitchers

Predictive stats can be funny because they mask reality. A player might have an expected stat that makes him appear far better or worse than what they actually end up being. While an indication at times of the worst being right around the corner or a bad year being the result of poor luck, it has become a larger part of examining a player’s performance. The data-driven New York Mets would never completely ignore expected stats. They have helped justify several moves, some of which have gone terribly bad and others which have done the exact opposite.

In 2026, there were three pitchers with expected stats nobody should ignore. Those expected stats could have a lot to do with how the team views them heading into 2027.

Expected stats can tell the Mets what to do about these players

Justin Hagenman probably is further down the depth chart than the Mets would like to admit

Justin Hagenman didn’t play much in 2026, logging only 8 innings in 3 big league appearances. The 3.38 ERA wasn’t bad, but the expected numbers were more in line with a disaster. The fact that he gave up 2 home runs in such a short period of time and only averaged 4.5 K/9 destroyed the analytics behind his abbreviated year. An expected slugging percentage of .560 in comparison to the true .452 he had makes his season seem even worse than it already was. Results in his 14 Triple-A innings weren’t all that different. He allowed 2 long balls in 14 innings while fanning only 8. 

Strangely competent yet the owner of some scary analytical numbers, pitching to too much contact with a high home runs allowed total makes him a terrifying option even if he consistently gets outs. The struggle with him might be knowing when to yank the chain when he’s most useful as an innings eater type.

Tobias Myers might not be so easy to non-tender

Tobias Myers finished with a 5.53 ERA but the expected ERA was a much better 4.15. Nobody saves their job with a 4.15 ERA. However, after the strong start to the season he had in a Mets uniform, this nearly run and a half difference could have them thinking twice about moving on from him for nothing.

Like Hagenman, Myers is a swingman type of arm. He won’t have any minor league options left in 2027, making him an interesting case to hold or move on from. Across the board, Myers had numbers to suggest his year was better than it looked and felt. Batters hit .268 against him but the xBA was .259. They slugged .483 against him with a xSLG of .407. Landing in the 86th percentile of barrels helped Myers add some red to hit Baseball Savant page. Will it be enough to keep him in the Mets’ bullpen plans?

Baseball Savant was made for players like Devin Williams

Devin Williams will continue to divide Mets fans. His 4.43 ERA was unexpected and yet the xERA of 3.22 should have us wondering if too much bad luck was in play. The xAVG of .218 suggests that he, yet again, had a poor statistical season that if played on a spreadsheet would have had him putting up an All-Star level performance.

Williams was kind of the same guy he was with the New York Yankees the year prior, only a bit worse. His walk rate went up. His strikeout rate fell. His xSLG of .306 was somehow even better than the xSLG of .314 the year prior yet with even a decrease in average exit velocity falling from 89.5mph to 87.7mph. With a 4.5% barrel rate which is lower than the 5.7% for his career, there are signs Williams can give the Mets far more next season.

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