Statcast shows NY Mets slugger is swinging the bat like a $200 million player

Pete Alonso's 2024 was a down year for his high standard of play. He batted .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs, a .340 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. While this was still well above-average production, the New York Mets slugger set career-lows in OBP, isolated slugging percentage, home run total, and put up a sub-.800 OPS for the first time in his career. Alonso lingered on the free agent market until February, and despite being a top ten free agent per MLB Trade Rumors, had to settle for a one-year contract with a player option for a second year.

But based on the first few weeks of the 2025 season, Alonso will definitely be exercising his right to test the free agent waters again. The Polar Bear already has 17 hits, including seven doubles and three home runs, in his first 13 games and 56 plate appearances. He currently has more walks than strikeouts, with an 8:5 ratio. He already has 35 total bases. For reference, when Alonso kicked his MLB career off in April 2019, he only had 68 total bases. But Statcast suggests Alonso is swinging the bat like a player who is about to receive a $200+ million contract.

Alonso's swing is potentially the main reason why he's doing so well. Alonso's average swing speed is 76.8 MPH, which is the fifth fastest in baseball right now (min. 30 PAs). But his swing is much shorter than that of his fellow fast-swinging power hitters. Sluggers like Yordan Alvarez and Oneil Cruz have an average swing length of over 7.5 feet. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge have swing lengths over eight feet. All four are within one MPH of swing speed to Alonso. But the Polar Bear's swing length is only 7.2 feet. For reference, the league average swing length and swing speed are 7.3 feet and 71.6 MPH, respectively.

Pete Alonso's Statcast metrics suggest that he's going to be a $200+ million player this offseason.

Alonso has also improved in both areas compared to last season. He still had a well above-average 75.2 MPH swing speed, which was in the top 90th percentile. His swing length was also around the league average at 7.3 feet. Alonso's shortening his swing and improving his swing speed are likely a large contributing factor to his scorching hot start.

However, they're not the only improvements he's made thus far. Alonso is swinging and missing at a very low rate. This year, his 16.7% whiff rate is in the top 88th percentile of batters. Last season, just one player had a whiff rate under 17% and a swing speed greater than 72 MPH in 400+ plate appearances. That was Yandy Diaz at 73.3 MPH. Alonso is on pace to put up a whiff rate below 24% for the first time in his career. It's not a coincidence that most batters with more compact swings do not have a high whiff rate.

Another department that is a contributing factor to Alonso's success is his swing selection. Alonso's chase rate for his career is slightly below average at 29.8% (league average is 28.5%). But right now, he has swung outside the zone just 22.1% of the time. He set a career low last season at 25.9%, which was in the 67th percentile of batters. Alonso's current chase rate sits in the 78th percentile.

Alonso's shorter swing is helping him make more contact. His improved bat speed is helping him hit for more power, and he has a 97.6 MPH exit velocity. He is also not being fooled with pitches outside the zone nearly as often as in previous seasons. These are obviously three of the most important things a batter can do to become elite: hit the ball hard, make more contact, and not swing outside the zone often. Given that Alonso has dramatically improved in all three areas, at least to start the 2025 campaign, he could be in for a big payday during the winter.