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3 short-term Mets replacements for Pete Alonso at first base to consider
The New York Mets are aggressive in the market this offseason, with enough availability and financial flexibility to add top players this winter. However, the availability of resources is not unlimited, and the team has multiple needs on its roster, which creates a need to focus on spending in the most efficient way possible.
In the scenario that the Mets manage to sign Juan Soto, they would need to be creative about how to fill the gaps in the three vacant spots in the starting rotation, bullpen, team bench, and first base. In this case, Pete Alonso has been a valuable piece for the Mets. Still, his position in the market could cause the Mets to look for short-term solutions, given the availability of top prospect infielders in the farm system.
1) Sign Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt has been a top hitter in baseball throughout his career. The first baseman has a career line of .289/.381/.510/.891 with 362 home runs, 1,187 RBI and 1,204 runs, one MVP, four gold glove awards, and five silver slugger awards.
However, the 36-year-old veteran hitter's 2024 season performance was worrying. He hit just .245 with an OBP of .302, significantly lower than his career average. The first baseman hit 22 home runs and 65 RBI in 154 games.
Goldschmidt had a drop in his ability to generate walks and a poor performance against offspeed pitches to which he hit for an AVG of .169 and a slugging percentage of just .241. Likewise, his distribution of hits via ground balls increased by almost 3.5 percentage points compared to 2023, and although his total swing rate increased, he did so by increasing his swing outside the strike zone.
On the other hand, there are positive factors by which a rebound can be expected from this hitter. His hard-hit contact, average exit velocity, and barrel remain at an elite level in MLB, so on a one-season contract, the gamble for a hitter of Goldsmischdt's caliber would be ideal to replace Pete Alonso at first base for the Mets.
2) Trade for Josh Naylor
Free agency has multiple names capable of covering first base but most of them are in search of multi-year contracts. Another way to improve the position without having to make a long-term financial commitment would be through the trade market.
The Cleveland Guardians would be inclined to trade Josh Naylor this winter because the first baseman is in the final year of his contract for which he would earn an estimated $14.5 million in his final year of arbitration. The Guardians feature former top prospect Kyle Manzardo, who was acquired at the 2023 trade deadline from the Tampa Bay Rays for Aaron Civale.
Naylor has been a productive bat in his career with a slash line of .262/.323/.444/.767 with 84 home runs and 343 RBIs. Although his profile is not that of a hitter with on-base skills, his strikeout and whiff rates are low and his power makes him a productive bat.
In 2024, he hit a career-high 31 home runs and 108 RBIs. On a low-cost, one-year deal, the cost of acquiring Naylor would not be high, requiring one or two prospects of average value and would be placed fourth or fifth in the batting lineup, being a left-handed hitter who would provide balance.
3) Sign Carlos Santana
If the Mets decide to go a lower-cost route, there is no better candidate than 38-year-old veteran Carlos Santana. 2024 represented the Dominican's fifteen season in MLB where he has achieved an All-Star Game selection, a Silver Slugger Award, and this season a Gold Glove Award.
Santana is a hitter with knowledge of the strike zone who in her MLB career has accumulated 324 home runs with 1,082 RBIs, 1,058 runs, and 1,278 walks. In this area, Santana has managed to finish in the top 10 in walks in the major leagues in twelve of his fifteen seasons on the major circuit.
In 2024, Santana played 150 games in which he posted a line of .238/.328/.420/.748 with 23 home runs, 71 RBIs, and 63 runs. The veteran managed to increase hard-hit contact compared to 2023 and decreased his percentage of hits connected by ground ball by more than 5 percentage points.
About MLB first basemen, Santana was number 13 overall in offensive production measured through wRC+ surpassing hitters like Luis Arraez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Vinnie Pasquantino. Likewise, Santana was 13th in win probability added, a statistic that seeks to help explain the impact of a specific player or event on the outcome of a game, with 0.54, meaning that Santana increased the chance of winning by 54% the Twins in 2024, surpassing players like Bryce Harper, Christian Walker, and Josh Naylor.
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