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If the 2025 PECOTA standings come to fruition, New York Mets fan should take that in a heartbeat. PECOTA projects the Mets will finish 89 wins, second in the NL East and with a 77.5% chance to make the playoffs.
The issue is, PECOTA has been all over the place in projecting the Mets in recent years. Last season the algorithm had the Amazins' finishing third in the division with about 83 wins and in the last wild card spot. Obviously, that looked far fetched for the first half of the year but outside of the Mets finishing with five more wins than projected, PECOTA hit the nail on the head with the NL East projection and a wild card spot.
PECOTA projects Mets to finish second in the NL East in 2025
2023 was a different story. Everybody, including PECOTA thought this would be a huge season for the franchise after winning 101 games the previous summer. The Mets were projected at 97 wins and an NL East title, finishing second in the National League behind the Dodgers. We don't need to go too much into how wrong that was but a 75 win season and fourth in the division tells you everything you need to know.
Then there was 2022, despite how it ended that was still one of the best regular seasons in franchise history. PECOTA had the Mets finishing second in the division to Atlanta with 91 wins. It got the division finish correct but ten more wins shouldn't be glossed over. Finally, PECOTA had the 2021 Mets finishing with 96 wins and a division title by nearly ten games. Unfortunately, you can get the gist that this thing isn't always correct.
Keep in mind that PECOTA won't factor in any new additions the Mets make between now and the season opener in Houston. Between now and Opening Day you'll hear more preseason predictions than you know what to do with but PECOTA is normally the one that gets fans talking the most. Given its recent history keep it mind these are called projections for a reason. There will be teams that fall short and surprises nobody expected but at least for this season we can hope the Mets aren't too far off their projected numbers.