Maybe the only reason the NY Mets are better off with Luke Weaver than Tyler Rogers

Plan-A didn’t happen for the New York Mets. Plan-B didn’t seem to come to fruition either. The good thing is that despite several missed shots, the Mets were often coming down with the rebound.

Before he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays, the Mets were under the impression they could sign Tyler Rogers to a 3-year deal worth $36 million. He ended up with a potential deal that could go up to $48 million with a vesting option on a fourth year and guarantee of $37 million over the next three seasons.

The player they turned to instead was Luke Weaver. His 2-year deal worth $22 million is far less than what Rogers will get paid. For a hopefully insignificant reason, it’s the better outcome.

Tyler Rogers may be the more proven reliever, Luke Weaver is the better insurance policy

If you have any doubts about what Devin Williams will do for the Mets in the closer role, you should be thrilled with the pivot to Weaver. Rogers, as useful as he is in late innings to get the ball on the ground and destroy rallies before they begin, isn’t anything close to a closer quality. Weaver can be used as a backup plan, something the Mets don’t have in abundance if Williams ends up as a disaster.

Weaver saved 8 games for the New York Yankees last year, replacing Williams in the role for a brief period. In save situations, he had a 2.53 ERA in 32 innings. This doesn’t account specifically for just games when he was asked to get the last 3 outs in the ninth. 

In the 9th inning itself, Weaver had a 2.00 ERA. His weakest inning for the Yankees last year was by far the 7th. He had a 6.86 ERA in those 19.2 innings of work.

You can be unsatisfied with Williams replacing Edwin Diaz. You can even wish the Mets had signed Rogers instead of Weaver. But the combination of ex-Yankees they did end up with seem to match up better than Williams and Rogers. One is a distinctive high-leverage reliever best used in the 8th or 9th. The other is a situational pitcher who should be used frequently in the 7th and 8th, rarely touching the final frame.

No Mets fan will be hoping to ever see Weaver close a game, but at least he has recently done it. 

Rogers has been a perennial 8th inning reliever more than anything else in his career. The best reliever duo would have been Diaz and Rogers. As soon as Diaz was gone and Williams became the closer, the best situation was to have a solution in case things go sideways. It’s precisely what Weaver should be.