An unsolved NY Mets offseason question no one has the answer to

We can rank, predict, and evaluate all we want with the New York Mets. What we can’t do is answer all of the questions this offseason. In fact, one very important one is trying to grab our attention.

A common topic about the Mets is what their starting rotation will look like next season. The consensus seems to be that they need to add some high-level ace to the staff. A trade, a free agent signing, or possibly both is how they accomplish this.

Easy enough. How many of us have an answer to the most important question to make this happen, who’s out?

There needs to be an odd man out from the Mets starting rotation and your guess is as good as any

The lone guarantee for next year’s rotation is Nolan McLean. The rookie was their best pitcher late last season. Despite being as green as he is, his stuff played well at the major league level.

The other four are questionable. Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga were huge letdowns. We shouldn’t forget about David Peterson turning into ice cream on a stovetop for the final weeks. There’s also Clay Holmes who, after a year of hearing he should be put in relief, might provide the Mets with a solution in the bullpen if they dare make that switch.

Keeping Senga around means a regular six-man rotation, but not an always situation. Carrying six starting pitchers on your roster is limiting. Rookies or capable long men like Brandon Waddell will provide them with spot starts as needed. The Mets will also protect themselves from injury as they did last offseason with moves like tendering a deal to Paul Blackburn and taking a chance on Griffin Canning despite the rotation already having more than enough arms.

Shopping in the Blackburn or Canning aisles isn’t out of the question for the Mets. However, with each rebound candidate the Mets may consider, it makes one more piece from the projected rotation expendable.

Peterson can no longer be sent to the minors with the amount of service time he has. Senga, while willing to go down at the end of last year, would not be so open to it to begin the 2026 campaign.

A trade seems to be the only way to realistically clear space. How appealing are the arms the Mets could shop? 

Senga is viewed as “buy low” despite his favorable contract and overall good numbers last year. Manaea’s deal is short but expensive with $50 million owed over the next two years. Holmes may have the most proven appeal considering how consistent he was for most of 2025 in comparison to Peterson who left his best stuff in the first half. Trading him would feel like a mistake and not really do much to improve the overall team.

A bullpen demotion is one other way to clear space in the rotation. It seems unlikely for anyone but Holmes or Peterson barring a disastrous spring from Manaea or Senga which could justify such a move.

Who do the Mets subtract from their starting rotation? It’s an unanswered question and your guess is as good as anyone.