Tylor Megill's days with the NY Mets could be numbered with arbitration due soon

MLB Trade Rumors recently released their 2025-2026 offseason arbitration projections, which means we aren’t far away from this year’s free agent class expanding from players getting non-tendered. The New York Mets have nine total players going through arbitration. However, not all nine will be getting a contract from the Mets. Tylor Megill is one of the players who could end up getting non-tendered this offseason.

Megill’s track record isn’t excellent to start with. He has a career 4.46 ERA (91 ERA+), a 4.24 FIP, and 1.39 WHIP over 409.2 innings of work since his debut in 2021. He has a respectable 24.3% strikeout rate, but a below-average 9.1% walk rate, and a 1.27 HR/9 ratio. The right-hander consistently gets hit hard, with an 89.6 MPH exit velocity and a 9.1% barrel rate. Plus, Megill has yet to have a truly healthy and good season since his debut.

The most innings he’s ever logged in one year is 126.1 in 2023. So far, it is the only time he has pitched at least 100 frames and has made 20+ starts. The results weren’t pretty either, with a 4.70 ERA, 4.96 FIP, and 1.58 WHIP. The last two seasons have been more promising for Megill, with a 4.00 ERA, 3.49 FIP, a 28% strikeout rate, and 0.86 HR/9, albeit with a 10.1% walk rate. But has only pitched 146.1 innings since the start of 2024.

Tylor Megill should be a non-tender candidate this offseason.

2025 looked like it was going to be Megill’s best season yet. It was the first time he had a sub-4.00 ERA at 3.95, and was putting up both a career-high 29.2% strikeout rate and career-low 0.79 HR/9 ratio. However, a bout with elbow problems that began in mid-June ended with Tommy John surgery in late September. The timing of his surgery means that he will be out all of 2026 and won’t return to action until 2027 at the earliest, assuming there are no setbacks along the way. By the time Megill returns, it will be his age-31 season, and he will become a free agent after the ‘27 campaign.

MLB TR currently projects Megill to earn $2.6 million through arbitration. However, that is $2.5-$3 million they know will be on the IL for the entirety of the 2026 season. Non-tendering Megill also means they could free up a 40-man roster spot. Once the 2025 season comes to an official close, players on the 60-day IL will have to go back on the 40-man roster.

As of right now, the Mets’ rotation is the last place they need to invest more money into. Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, Sean Manaea, and Kodai Senga should all be options in 2026. The Mets have more impressive pitching talent in the minor leagues, like Jack Wenninger, Jonathan Santucci, Will Watson, and Zach Thornton. Baseball America also just ranked them as one of the best systems in terms of minor league Stuff+. By the time Megill is ready to go again, at least some of these prospects should be options for the Mets’ rotation.

The positives for the Mets non-tendering Tylor Megill completely outweigh the negatives. The only notable positive is that the Mets would be making a relatively cheap bet that he can continue to trend upward, but this comes after missing the last one-and-a-half seasons due to elbow problems. Expect to see Megill join this year’s free agent class by the time the arbitration deadline rolls around.