Mets News: Luis Severino expected to reject the qualifying offer and why he’ll regret it

Sean Manaea was going to say “thanks, but no thanks” to the qualifying offer extended to him by the New York Mets. Pete Alonso was going to hand the phone off to Scott Boras who would instinctively laugh back at them. As for Luis Severino, the decision was a bit more of a toss up.

He has until Tuesday to officially decide, but reports are he’ll join Manaea and Alonso.

Good for Sevy for believing in his abilities. Shame on the situation he’s in that’ll present him with far fewer opportunities.

Mets free agent Luis Severino won’t have his pick of teams in free agency and might regret not returning on the one-year deal

A return to the Mets on a multi-year contract isn’t out of the question even if he does reject the qualifying offer. In fact, it’s not such a bad wager to believe the Mets wait out his free agency and look to bring him back on a bargain. He’ll be rejecting $21.05 million. It’s a steep price for a player of his ability and more important track record of getting hurt. The goal of rejecting the QO will be to secure more overall money.

One scenario could be a two-year deal where the second is a player option. Something along the lines of $15-20 million with a bump in the second year is one way to avoid a long-term commitment to him while giving him the opportunity to stay put in New York. He has yet to represent any other major league city after all.

When it comes to the QO, teams have to weigh which players are worth being penalized over. They vary depending upon the previous year’s payroll with the lowest group being the revenue sharing recipients which accounts for almost half of the league. According to MLB Trade Rumors, those teams are: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Those teams would lose their third-highest draft pick if they signed Severino and no other player that rejected the QO. It’s the least harsh penalty. Many unappealing destinations, the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles probably make the most sense and are in need of a starting pitcher. A few others could be in on Severino as well, but typically tend to keep their payroll down. Here’s looking at you, Cleveland Guardians.

Severino was actually in a good spot to take the money this offseason and build on the success. He’ll be 31 all of next season. One year where he proved to be effective and healthy shouldn’t be enough for anyone to commit a long-term deal to him. Understandably, the difference between an age 31 and 32 pitcher could have weighed on him in hopes of gaining some sort of security this time around.

One of those teams in the revenue sharing section and the Mets will make the most sense for Severino especially with so many good players out there who will reject the qualifying offer. If he was coming over from another team, the Mets wouldn’t be a good match because of the penalties. Signing just one player who rejected the qualifying offer costs them $1 million plus their second and fifth-highest draft picks. They don’t get penalized for bringing him back.

In a free agent class filled with pitching talent, it feels like Severino is going to end up getting paid less than he’d like on a shorter contract than he believes he has already earned and maybe stuck in an uncompetitive situation. Aren’t the Oakland Athletics claiming they’re going to spend some money next year? Oh, boy.