Mets Monday Morning GM: A free agent who didn’t make sense last year but could now

Things change. People’s opinions evolve. Divorces happen and suddenly secrets you thought your spouse would keep close become fair game. MLB free agents re-enter the market and suddenly become more appealing. The New York Mets can look at one of those possibilities a little differently this winter.

Coming off of a 2023 Cy Young performance, Blake Snell didn’t receive the amount of love he probably deserved. His 2.25 ERA led the league but so did the 99 walks he allowed. Snell has not been consistent in his career and yet he has never had one truly terrible season either. A big knock against him has been an inability to stay healthy. Only twice has he topped 30 starts. He won the Cy Young both times.

Snell hasn’t gotten much attention from Mets fans whose priority seems to be more focused on signing Corbin Burnes while retaining Sean Manaea. Does Snell make sense for the Mets?

Blake Snell makes much more sense for the Mets this offseason than he did last winter

Last year’s qualifying offer penalties completely eliminated Snell from the conversation of coming to the Mets. There was too much to lose in terms of draft picks and international money. Snell rejected the one-year offer from the San Diego Padres then settled for a short-term deal to join the San Francisco Giants. He opted out of the second year, taking home $32 million in 2024.

The results were promising. A 5-3 record and 3.12 ERA in 20 starts, he limited his walks to 3.8 per 9 versus the 5 per 9 he had the year prior. Although the ERA went up nearly a run, his FIP dropped. He allowed only 5.6 hits per 9 versus the previous year when it was at a slightly higher 5.8 per 9.

Snell cannot be mentioned as a free agent option without referring to the two tales of his 2024 season. He was 0-3 with a 6.31 ERA in 8 first half starts. In the second half, he was elite. Snell went 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA in those final 12 appearances. He held hitters to a .133/.223/.189 slash line in those final 260 plate appearances.

Snell is now the all-time leader in strikeouts per 9 at 11.22, just above Chris Sale at 11.09. A deceptive statistic in some ways that includes Robbie Ray third, Carlos Rodon 12th, and Nick Pivetta 13th, it does show how well he measures up against his peers. He has never actually led the league in the statistic in part because of the missed time he frequently has.

When Snell hit the market last year, he was looking for a ridiculously lengthy contract. No one bit. What about now?

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Snell gets a five year deal worth $160 million. He’d be a good fallback to Corbin Burnes. They have him getting seven years and $200 million.

For Snell, one has to wonder if entering a quasi-six-man rotation could benefit his durability a little more. The Mets would be wise to continue down that path with the presence of Kodai Senga on the roster. While not strict, spot starts (even shorter ones) from players such as Jose Butto couldn’t hurt them during lengthier periods without an off-day.

If the Mets are determined to sign an ace and for whatever reason Burnes isn’t the one they get, Snell is a good choice even with the ups, minor downs, and missed time in his career.