NY Mets Monday Morning GM: Great start, Clay Holmes gamble still has an Everest to scale

Through two appearances and 6 innings, Clay Holmes has made David Stearns look like the mastermind his reputation says he is. A mad scientist of baseball executives, choosing to take a long time reliever and turn him into a starter with no publicly-viewed rationale was a bold decision. If spring training games counted, we might be scheduling the New York Mets for a trip down the Canyon of Heroes already.

Those games don’t count. The scoreless innings will be lost to time. What’ll matter most is Holmes’ performance in the regular season.

Two trios of scoreless frames from Holmes is satisfying at this point of spring training. Yet there remains one major mountain for him to conquer.

Clay Holmes has proven he can pitch well in 3 innings, what about more?

The general thinking with many starting pitchers these days is you never want a batter to see a pitcher for a third time through. Holmes has been so spectacular this spring that he has faced only two over the minimum. A hit and a walk are the lone base runners he has allowed in his 6 innings of work.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to be held back in the early stages of spring, no less a guy who hasn’t pitched as anything more than a reliever in recent seasons. If already capable of going 3 innings, adding to his endurance shouldn’t be too big of an issue. The trouble may be with how effective he actually is.

An inability to get batters out multiple times can be the difference for a pitcher being a starter or reliever. Tylor Megill is a good representation of this. The first time through, hitters have been held to a .244/.314/.388 slash line against him. Only a slight increase occurs the second time through at .253/.321/.421. It’s that ever-dangerous third time through the order, usually happening in the fifth or sixth inning when trouble brews. Megill has been tuned up to a .307/.385/.524 slash line against him at the third-look.

Working out of the bullpen for several years now, Holmes hasn’t had a chance to be seen by hitters more than once through. It’s to his benefit. How will he handle things in those middle innings?

Spring training doesn’t offer an exact preview of what’s to come. Beyond needing to see Holmes extend his innings totals and retire batters multiple times in a game, a true MLB lineup will pose a greater challenge than any he’d sit in exhibition action. Having the arm strength to last 5 or 6 innings looks achievable. Doing so with effectiveness remains the question.