MLB strength of schedule: NY Mets have more than a tough list of June opponents

Just by looking at the teams on the June New York Mets schedule, we could see the challenges for the month. They’ve managed to avoid getting swept and even took some series against playoff hopefuls. Their tough road through a make or break month won’t get any easier, apparently. According to Tankathon, their strength of schedule is the second-toughest in MLB. Their remaining 87 games includes a combined winning percentage of .531. Only the Cincinnati Reds have a tougher schedule with a combined .539 winning percentage. There’s a big fall after the Mets with the San Diego Padres and a .519 winning percentage to deal with. Most of the league is in the .490-.510 range.

The Mets have already made multiple West Coast trips. Travel has been brutal. Fortunately, it’s limited to a trip to play the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox, and Texas Rangers outside of the Eastern Time Zone for the remainder of 2026. Those exits from EST come about a month apart each with around the 20th of July, August, and September.

So, what’s going on here? How is it the Mets have such a tough road ahead when they’ve already seemed to go through a gauntlet?

The Mets strength of schedule is a math problem

Strength of schedule measures the total winning percentage of everyone left. In the NL East, with the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies owing the Mets a combined 22 games left this season, we get a quick answer. Add in a surprisingly successful Washington Nationals ball club and the Miami Marlins who should compete for at least something close to a .500 record, the lack of NL East ball clubs early on in the year on the Mets schedule further explains why the road ahead feels tougher than it may actually be.

We saw the Mets take care of business against the Braves and follow it up a week later with a victory in their first fight with the Phillies. They’re only .500 against the Marlins with both teams splitting sweeps. They have a 3-4 record against the Nationals who seem just as capable as anyone to fall off a cliff because of their pitching while also maybe pummeling opponents into submission with their hitting.

Playing in a good division often shifts how a strength of schedule works. Placed at the bottom of the NL East, there’s no one but better opponents right now to face. The only teams the Mets play with a worse record than they have for the remainder of the year are the Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, and Kansas City Royals. It’s three games each.

The Mets are definitely a better team than their record says they are. The trouble is they don’t have cakewalk series coming up. Playing the defeated Royals and Red Sox back-to-back before the All-Star Break will help or obliterate the Mets completely. They come out of the break playing the Phillies and Brewers on the road followed by the Dodgers and Braves at home. 

This isn’t a “just take 2 out of 3” situation. The Mets need much more and their schedule’s strength has quite a lot of muscle on it.

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