NY Mets knew what the Cubs had to learn the hard way

The Chicago Cubs recently designated for assignment Genesis Cabrera, a left-handed reliever signed by the New York Mets to a minor league contract this offseason and subsequently released by the Queens team last May. Cabrera saw action in just six appearances with the Mets before being designated for assignment, where he finished with a 3.52 ERA in 7 2/3 innings.

Upon joining the Cubs, Cabrera showed disappointing results with an 8.68 ERA in 9 1/3 innings, primarily driven by home runs. These results unequivocally demonstrate that the Mets had seen a potential regression in Cabrera's not-so-bad performances during his time with the team, a regression that unfortunately for the Cubs, materialized in full.

The inconsistent appeal of a lefty reliever

Cabrera has been a striking asset for MLB teams in recent years given his left-handed pitcher arsenal and relatively low cost. However, he has consistently been a pitcher unable to replicate his dominant 2020 performances with the St. Louis Cardinals or the strong results he showed midseason in 2023 with the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite this inconsistency, the 28-year-old left-hander still boasts a competitive 4.03 ERA in his MLB career, a testament to flashes of brilliance that keep teams interested.

A key to Cabrera's appeal lies in his velocity. He continues to show good velocity with his sinker, averaging over 95 mph, and notably, hitters have a mere .313 slugging percentage against it. This indicates that when his sinker is working, it's a highly effective pitch for inducing weak contact. However, his struggles emerge with the rest of his repertoire, especially his curveball. Hitters are finding considerable success against this pitch, slugging at a horrendous .600-plus percentage. This is a fatal flaw for a reliever, particularly since his curveball is his second-most used pitch, leaving him vulnerable when it's not locating effectively.

Cabrera is now in a difficult position. The Cubs have a week to trade him during the allocation period, and teams may very well claim him given the scarcity and high demand for left-handed relievers in Major League Baseball. However, just as the Mets seemingly anticipated the regression that ultimately occurred with Cabrera, any team seeking this pitcher's services will have to be acutely aware of what they're getting into. His hard-hitting sinker undeniably helps mitigate some of the damage, as it keeps batted balls on the ground a lot, which helps explain why his expected ERA hovers around his career average of approximately 4.00, despite the alarming numbers on his curveball.

The saga of Genesis Cabrera serves as a prime example of the calculated risks and informed decisions front offices must make in the ever-evolving landscape of professional baseball. While the allure of a left-handed arm with velocity is undeniable, the Mets' quick release, and the Cubs' subsequent struggles, highlight the importance of recognizing underlying issues that can derail even the most promising talents.