Kazuma Okamoto contract prediction aligns with the NY Mets with one exception

Kazuma Okamoto is one of the best remaining free agent first basemen on the market. In fact, he’s probably one of the better third basemen, too. The Japanese star is coming over to MLB this offseason as one of two notable hitters. Munetaka Murakami is the slugger trying to mash his way toward a big league contract. Okamoto is the seemingly safer choice and appears to align closely with everything the New York Mets are doing this offseason.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted Okamoto to receive a four-year deal worth $64 million. A completely reasonable amount based on what he may be able to offer, the dollar amount of $16 million per year is far too irresistible to overlook him entirely.

The only thing, at least with this prediction, which could be the problem for the Mets is the dreaded fourth year. If the Mets weren’t willing to go there with Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz, are we so sure they will with Okamoto?

There are still ways to make Kazuma Okamoto work on the Mets roster

It’s silly to not add any free agent for more than 3 years as a firm line in the sand. In Okamoto’s case, turning 30 next summer, the Mets aren’t adding an aging player. This doesn’t necessarily seem to be the concern as to why David Stearns is hesitant to go to a fourth year with others. Future flexibility is the only rationale that makes any sense.

The main concern with Okamoto, as it is with many players coming over from Japan, is their ability to hit fastballs over 94mph, an issue noted by MLB Trade Rumors while discussing his original posting date. It’s an adjustment many have to make coming over to MLB and it may take a year. Does Stearns have the patience to let him figure it out in 2026?

Okamoto won a Gold Glove twice at third base and has been one of the league’s better power hitters. There’s a lot to like about him and a reluctance to tack on a fourth year would be a ridiculous reason to pass on him altogether. As a first baseman who can also log innings at third base, he seems invaluable for a Mets team that could use added depth at the hot corner.

No one at MLB Trade Rumors predicted the Mets would actually sign Okamoto. Their choices were the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, and San Diego Padres. They’re a mix of four teams that could use first base and third base improvements. A couple are perceived “bargain hunters” with the Pirates known to avoid pricier free agents and the Padres hoping to lower payroll.

Two writers at MLBTR did predict the Mets would sign Murakami with an 8-year deal worth $180 million. We can probably assume that’s not so realistic any longer. Even Okamoto could be a stretch after signing Jorge Polanco for 1B/DH duties. It's a reach I'd be willing to take as Polanco has just one inning of first base experience.

Murakami has until December 22 to sign with Okamoto’s free agency extending into the new year with January 4 as the final day for him to sign. At a predicted third of the price and half as many years, we know which one the Mets would prefer. For three years on a $22 million AAV, Okamoto gets $66 million (a little more than predicted) and lands comfortably on the Mets as a corner infield option. It opens up the possibility of trading Brett Baty, plugging Okamoto in at third base, and having some added flexibility on top of utilizing your young third baseman (Baty) to maybe acquire a starting pitcher you desire.