Juan Soto steals 30 bases for the NY Mets with a unique claim to go with it

When you picture a player with 30 or 40+ stolen bases, you usually envision an above-average runner, at the very least. Nineteen different players have stolen at least 30 bases while in a New York Mets uniform. Only seven have stolen 40+, with Jose Reyes and Mookie Wilson standing as the only two to have multiple 40+ SBS seasons. But one of the newest members of the Mets, outfielder Juan Soto, is about to join the 30 stolen base club, with the potential to join the 40 stolen base club, all while doing it in the slowest way possible, literally.

The Mets signed Soto to be a massive threat at the plate, and he has been just that. While there have been some ups and downs at the dish, he has generally had an impressive first impression in Queens with a .921 OPS. However, Soto has done all of that while swiping an extremely unepxected 29 bases over 143 games so far.

This is by far an unprecedented number for Soto. His previous career high in stolen bases was 12, which he swiped in 2023 with the San Diego Padres and in 2019, his sophomore season, with the Washington Nationals. He’s done that all while only getting caught three times, for a stolen base success rate of 90.6%. With his efficiency, there’s a strong chance that he gets to 40 stolen bases. Right now, there have only been 15 players since 2015 with at least 30 stolen bases, and a 90%+ success rate. Only 20 players all-time have stolen 40+ bases with that high of a success rate.

Juan Soto could steal 40 bases, all while running at well below average rates.

With the introduction of Statcast in 2015, fans are able to view the game in a brand new ways. This includes player sprint speed. Soto’s sprint speed this year is 25.9 feet/second. For reference, Baseball Savant describes the Major League average on a competitive play at 27 feet/second. That puts Soto well below the league average, as he is in just the 15th percentile of sprint speed this season.

However, this all makes him the slowest player ever to steal 30 or more bases. The next closest is Kyle Tucker in 2023, who swiped 30 bases with a 26.6 feet/second sprint speed. Prior to Soto, only he and Elvis Andrus in 2019 stole 30+ bases with a sub-27 feet/second speed. That may not seem like a huge gap, but it’s nearly an entire foot difference. Over a 90-foot sprint, Soto will reach first base in 4.17 seconds, while Tucker in 2023 would reach in 4.03 seconds.

The gap looks even larger once it’s narrowed down to players who swiped 40+ bases in a season during the Statcast Era, something that has only happened 33 times since 2015. The slowest still remains as Jothan Villar in 2019 with 40, and Charlie Blackmon in 2015 with 43. Both were clocked at 27.9 feet/second, which was in the 72nd percentile in 2019 for Villar, and the 76th percentile in 2015 for Blackmon. Both could reach 90 feet in less than four seconds, compared to Soto, who takes 4.17 seconds to reach 90 feet.

Soto will be the slowest player to steal 30 bases, and by far the slowest to steal 40 bases in the Statcast Era so far. There's a very real chance he is the next member of the 40/40 club. It’s rather impressive what Soto has been able to do on the basepaths this year. Soto was expected to be on base a lot, and he is doing just that, leading the league in on-base percentage. But his stolen bases have been a huge surprise, and a massive help for the Mets.